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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nevtah/Tower Oil Intl.- NTAH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Author51 who wrote (2345)	7/17/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: Robert	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3817

And heres the whole update: UPDATE AND COMMENTARY A L E R T N E W S L E T T E R . C O M 7/17/98 =============================================== It gets difficult to keep an objective perspective when the market gets crazy like it has over the last week. I am anxious to see money flow figures for this week. There are a number of things that concern me as they relate to individual investors right now. As we go into the fall and winter I foresee a situation developing whereby individual investors will be left alone at the altar. There is no love lost in the market, no loyalty to firms, to companies, to political parties/leaders, to countries, nor to investors. The market is extremely overvalued right now, this is no surprise to anyone. The S&P 500 is hovering near the 26 - 27 times earnings level. NASDAQ continues to set record highs. Us "old-timers" realize how goofy all of this is. I am guilty also, hell, I recommended a potential earnings surprise earlier in the week with TIER Technologies (TIER). I recommended this little company at 18 and change, because I heard they should be reporting a couple cents ahead of street, this means basically they'll only be fetching a 90 PE or something--ridiculous, but we all get caught up in it... Eventually we all have to come back to reality. The following can help illustrate to new investors how out of control the NASDAQ market is. Nasdaq Milestones Milestone Date Time between Milestones 100 2/18/71 -- 500 4/12/91 20 yrs., 2 mos. 1,000 7/17/95 4 yrs., 3 mos. 1,500 7/11/97 2 yrs. 2,000 7/16/98 1 yr. I think that is pretty self explanatory. Before I get assaulted with a flurry of "Yeah, But..!"'s, let me get to my point. The US Markets for a good part of 1998, have been considered somewhat of a "safe haven" for cash.Institutions around the world have felt with the Asian meltdown, "You gotta put it somewhere", so an inordinate amount of money has come into US dollar denominated equities and debt instruments. This led to a flurry of new investors to the market, people who otherwise would not have even considered buying stocks,to day trading anything with a symbol, shorting stocks and trading options. These are people who have never experienced any significant downturn in the market. These are the people who are going to get hurt. As I said there is no love lost. Getting to the meat of the issue. What I foresee is a shift back to Asian markets developing. Huge amounts of money will be moved back into those markets. This will not only lead to a sell off in US equities, but we will start to see US Treasuries get impacted as well. In Japan it appears the former chief cabinet secretary, Seiroku Kajiyama, will be a candidate for prime minister. He is an outspoken advocate for much needed banking reform, it is widely felt that he is the type of leader the Japanese economy needs. Over the last few days, his potential candidacy has strengthened the yen versus the dollar and pushed the Nikkei 225 higher. Resistance in the Nikkei has been from 16,500 through 17,100. Although with S&P recent downgrade of China (what a shock <sarcasm>), worries continue in Hong Kong, we are starting to see signs of a turn around there as well. Japan will continue to hold the key to the region. This is why we have somewhat of a more cautious view of the US markets. Earlier in the year in our "Outlook" edition. We predicted 9400 as the top of the trading range for the Dow for the year, as we quickly approach that level, we will maintain our cautious stance. For long term money, we still like natural resources. We expect from current levels those sectors to out perform ALL others in overall stock price appreciation over the next 6 - 9 months.