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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (1217)	7/17/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Stock bull, My point of DELL growth will slow down is based on the simple math. There is no way that DELL will sustain a 40-50% earning growth in the next five years to adjust its lofty valuation. DELL is not a monoplay, and it does not have the luxury of MSFT to manipulate earning numbers (MSFT can choose between reporting beating first call by 2 cents or by 40 cents, they have all those hidden revenues). The biggest reason that people are bidding DELL share price up is that most investors nowadays want to invest their money in those super blue chips that have a history of meeting or beating first calls, and that's why we see the PE multiples of MSFT, DELL, LU, and CSCO going sky high. Sure DELL has had 18 straight quarters of beating fisrt call. However, I am not convinced that investors will be satisfied by a 2 penny surprise. We all know that the current market rally is fueled by the huge input of liquidity from overseas. When the money flow turns negative (the time that Asia economy begins to recover), where is the money that's going to sustain the rally? I am really not comfortable with the fact that after INTC and CPQ announces lousy earnings, these issues rally. It's also not a good sign that even AMAT goes up after it issues earning warnings. The super bullish trend of the market is a clear indication of an imminent top is forming. I usually don't short issues because naked shorting is too dangerous and I always manage much higher return by longing issues. Besides those super four and YHOO!, AOL, AMZN, I also traded INTC, and CPQ. Looks like that SUNW is about to break the trading range and march toward 60-65. GTW and AMAT should be a nice put play above 70 and 32 respectively. Even DELL will be a nice put play when it shoots above 140.:) I also trade some some issues. Oil service issues, like FGII and GIFI give you super gain if you trade them as rolling stocks. IDTC is also a nice small company with a bright future. But I don't want to talk too much about small and mid-cap since these issues are out of flavor right now. larry!