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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude who wrote (21922)	7/17/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Claude/ALL, "Will The Millennium Bug Halt Chip Lines?" (07/17/98; 12:41 p.m. ET) By Staff, Electronic Buyers' News There could be a chip shortage -- maybe a big one -- starting Jan. 1, 2000. That's when semiconductor fab lines across the world could start doing funny things because of the millennium bug. [snip] techweb.com We could have a poll on this.<vbg> GM

To: Claude who wrote (21922)	7/17/1998 2:48:00 PM
From: Quant	Respond to of 70976

Revision of earnings for 2H '98 reflects company guidance to lower expectations. However, it has impact of "lowering the bar" to meet or exceed going forward. Pricing power for semis in general should return 2H '98 (by 4Q)---you may even see inventory shortages. Asia will contribute to these shortages given recent production cutbacks and distribution problems. Consolidation is a real possibility in AMAT sector. Demand remains back ended into late '99 - '00. If near-term earnings woes continue in sector, the larger players will be viewed as the potential buyers in a merger environment. Hence, a justifiable "premium" for AMAT. Earnings are fully discounted until 6/30/99, at lowered estimates. I refrain (I'm prohibited) from option trading. However, despite being a true fundamental, CAP-M long term investor, I do watch several stochastic technical indicators (ie MACD, RSI). These are not flashing near-term reversal of recent appreciation. I expect a successful break through the perceived $32 resistance and trend to $37.5 by 9/30. Concurrently, expect SOX to break 275 and reach $300 in same time frame. Risk: It happens very quickly. Day trading can be hazardous to your health.