To: Tony Johns who wrote (2733 ) 7/17/1998 6:43:00 PM From: JMD Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 7342
Tony, the only 'knock' on TLAB that surfaces from time to time is that they may be a one trick pony, i.e., an ungodly percent of their revenues and profits come from their Titan 5500 digital cross connect product. So it is prudent to 'worry' about what's waiting in the wings as no technology product lives forever, and certainly not in the telecom world. The second thing to worry about is Lucent, as it is becoming clearer every day that LU and TLAB are squaring off. Of course if you're going to worry about LU, then you logically also have to worry about CSCO. Without wishing to insult your intelligence, I must add the obvious: Lucent and Cisco are not exactly 98 pound weaklings. Therefore as much as I consider TLAB a 'core' holding, there is NO stock I put away and forget about. They are in one of the toughest competitive environments on the planet, with large, capable and technologically savvy competitors. (Don't forget about Nortel and Alcatel who also belong in the world class category). That said, Tellabs has superb management. They have a strong relationship with every telecom carrier on the planet. They have a reputation for product quality and customer service that is certainly as good, if not superior, to any competitor. Further, their customers (the carriers) desperately want to have multiple vendors and Tellabs has reached a size and stature that makes them a short list with Lucent and Nortel, etc. whenever a contract is up for bid. Carriers don't change central switch technology at the drop of a hat; the Tital install base is very powerful and capable of generating huge earnings for years. Which leaves the Ciena merger/acquisition. Obviously, TLAB concluded that the all optical network was the future. CEO Birck explicitly stated so during the earnings CC. So the one trick pony question has at least one answer: AON ( and of course DWDM is central to an optical network). What else is waiting around? Well you should investivate their Cablespan product. This little guy has been all dressed up with no place to go for about 2 years now; but the time may be finally at hand. It has enormous potential. And then there is the TLAB $64 question: wireless, particularly the Steinbrecher acquisiton from IBM. To date, no announcements but futurists like George Gilder think it has 'blow the roof off' 'paradigm' shift and every other cliche' you can think of going for it. These are just my prejudiced thoughts on the company; hope you may find some of interest. Mike Doyle