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Gold/Mining/Energy : Greenstone (GRERF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mr Metals who wrote (50)7/18/1998 12:40:00 PM
From: Daytek77  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 138
 
Mr Metals

First I do not own Greenstone my brother does. I read your answers and am curious as to how you arrive at your conclusions?

1. Steelguy asks Tita about a problem with Brown and Root her response

"They told her the claims about a problem with Brown and Root were absolutely false . I asked if payments had been made since January and she said they most certainly had"

Your response :

Yes, I think that Tita was technically correct in her response to you. Money probably has been paid to Brown & Root by Greenstone for contract mining work, but I think that it may have been for prior months (January 1998 and prior months).

Why do you think that the money was for work prior to Jan '98? Her response to the question have payments been made since January not before was "they most certainly had. I fail to see the logic in your interpretation. Also you mentioned that Greenstone would be hit with a default notice on July 17. Greenstone is legally obligated to acknowledge such a material event if it happens.

Second your analysis of current burn rate is lacking.

STEELGUY: "...asked if their burn rate is $20million a quarter and she said not even close..."

Mr Metals RESPONSE:
How does Tita reconcile the $40 million @ December 31, 1997 and the $20 million on March 31, 1998? Yes, most of that $20 million probably went into capex for Greenstone's mines - no arguments there. But, how much money did Greenstone go through in the second quarter??

The question was is the burn rate $20 million a quarter not how much money did you spend last quarter. It is not correct to assume that Greenstone will spend $20 million every quarter. Her response indicates it is substantially less. In August you will have the actual number.

The highlights for the first quarter taken from their press release are as follows:

Entering 1998 activities at the Cerro Mojon gold mine in Nicaragua
focused on commissioning Phase II capacity (now swithcing to Phase III)

Construction of the San Andres mine in Honduras continues on schedule and on budget for a start-up of operations during July.

Exploration work at La Libertad concentrated on sectional drilling on the 4 kilometre Cerro Mojon trend and extensions along the ''north leg'' of the super-pit area.

At San Andres, exploration during the quarter focused on extending the
mine life at Water Tank Hill and completing the necessary condemnation
drilling for dump site locations. Delineation drilling was completed on targets west, east and south of Water Tank Hill.

Finally here is the conclusion by Management:

Quarterly results aside, the important objectives for 1998 remain the same: (1) commission Phase III capacity at Cerro Mojon which will enable us to exit the year at above 12,000 ounces per month; (2) achieve commercial production at San Andres enabling us to exit 1998 with production of at least 10,000 ounces per month; and (3) complete rehabilitation of the Bonanza mine with monthly production of 3,000 ounces by year-end.

The fact that a mutual fund company unloads a million shares is not always clear cut as you think. When Frank Mersch was releived of his duties at Altamira the new fund team immediately started dumping resource stocks and that was in the first quarter of the year! They and most mutual fund companies have a pessimistic view point of the resource sector (especialy Gold) and have minimal participation as a result. Their weighting to the sector is less than the TSE weighting which is about 5% I beleive. You pose the question why has the stock slid so badly. My respose is that when you have a fire-sale (the 1,000,000 sold by the Mutual fund) would you expect the buyer to pay current rates or do you think they will want a discount to take these shares off your hands. I think the answer is obvious.

You ask the following question:

Something else to ponder, Steelguy: Greenstone used to attend all of the gold investment shows, and now we never see them anymore. Any ideas why not???????????????

Why would a company attend a gold investment show when the attendance and interset is minimal. These shows tend to be more for pure exploration plays. I think that going to one of these now is a gross waste of money. Take a look at this site as an example. The number of postings in a week does not even compare with the Bre-X thread daily postings alone a few years ago. Bottom line the interest is not there by investment community and speculator/investor alike.

In conclsion I will be the first to congratulate you if your sources are correct. I suspect however they are not.

Tony



To: Mr Metals who wrote (50)7/20/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: Steelguy  Respond to of 138
 
Good morning Mr.Metals.
Well, I appreciate you calling your source and again, who knows who is correct in this instance. I appreciate your warnings about IR people and I am well aware of these facts. If you read my first post again you will see that I am fully convinced that I was being pacified to a degree however, I believe that her words were facts.

Just my opinion here but I would have to say this about the recent trading activity. IF there was some disaster on the immidiate horizon ie: Friday JUly 17th "d-day"., would we not have seen some more selling pressure on the stock Thursday and Friday. I mean, if this were true about Brown and Root, enough people would know and would have been dumping. Remember, the 1,000,000 were NOT INSIDERS dumping stock but a fund which I believe Tita said had to due with margin problems ( although with a fund I do not have the knowledge to understand how margin requirements work etc.. with a fund's purchase ) however, I believe that is what she said. So come Thursday and Friday we see some nice buying up of the stock to close at its high for the week I believe. This on the day that your source said would be a disaster for Greenstone.... I just don't think that the day was correct. Now, does this mean that there is no problem, I have no idea, I am just trying to look at what was said and try to decide if things look better or worse for us shareholders.

Something to ask you about your original post that I forgot:
You say that Brown and Root would be placing GReenstone in default of the agreement on JUly 17th. But you make mention that Brown and Root would not be making an announcement about the problem because
$2million is not significant for a billion dollar company. Well, if $ 2million is not significant for a billion dollar company then why are they so freaked out in the first place???????? Why would they want to pull out equipment that will cost gobbs of cash to do to have no chance of recouping this loss. As well, they know there is the potential for more contracts with Greenstone in the future. So for a measly $ 2million as this company may look at it, why all the fuss? It just doesn't add up to me. But hey ...my knowledge of all this can compare to a " steaming bowl of jack-squat" so who knows?

Good day to all.

***off topic****

Mr, metals.
glad you pulled the trigger on DML, I really think now that we will never see anything out of this play and I will be left with some more wallpaper for my NAI. Oh well.