i agree with you, Riechers. if you take q1, q2, and the estimates for q3, combined... thats 20 billion in revenue for CPQ, and 132 million in earnings... just pathetic.
i thought that q1 and q2 would have been sufficient for CPQ to work through its problems, and get back on track. CPQ's operating profits this quarter were 2 cents. if they make 6 cents in q3, that extra 4 cents in earnings will probably be entirely due to their streamlining of dec. where is the improvement in their core pc business?
CPQ's gross margins (products only, not services) in q4 '97 were 28%. 18% in q1, and 18% in q2. i had hoped to see some improvement from q1 to q2. mason had said that next quarter their margins should increase a few points, but again that could be attributable to synergies realized from dec.
if, as CPQ claims, they are down to 3.5 weeks worldwide channel inventory... that + the benefits of their ODM, CTO, CCP programs + synergies from dec (layoffs, increased service revenues, higher volumes on alpha) + everything else they have going on (e-commerce initiatives, small business initiatives, plans for alta-vista, new kick-ass consumer machines, CPQ direct plus, radio-shack, in store kiosks, cool new affordable gadgets like flat-panel monitors and fingerprint recognition devices, etc, etc, etc...) should, IMO = much more than 6 cents.
i think CPQ's board and management are top-notch, and have no doubt that CPQ will be a powerhouse. there are just so many positives about CPQ, i am growing impatient that it should be taking this long for CPQ to get back firing on all cylinders. 9 months ago i was deciding whether to invest in CPQ or DELL or buy both. i put my money on CPQ because i felt then, and feel even more so now, that DELL is nearly fully-valued, and that CPQ has alot more upside potential. well, after 9 months, i'm right where i started with CPQ, whereas dell has returned 200% :
exchange2000.com
consider this: from their october '97 highs (prior to the october crash), dell has more than doubled, whereas CPQ is still 15% below its high.
i for one, am growing impatient with CPQ's slow recovery, and want to start seeing substantial improvements soon. and when those occur, i won't be happy just to see CPQ at 40 or 45. given the current tech rally, and the performance of DELL and GTW, i would expect CPQ to be at least 50% above its october high, putting it at about $60.
by the way, anyone hear the news about DELL increasing the authorized # of shares from 1 billion to 3 billion? if DELL does another split and doubles in value from here before CPQ does, i may just go insane.
at any rate, call me stubborn, but i am going to add to my CPQ position by adding some jan 2000 40 calls, and i intend to make a killing on them... its time for CPQ to play catch-up to DELL! |