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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (6064)	7/17/1998 6:42:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 42834

i2, re:sentiment. I got the information from Wall Street Week. A couple of times over the last few years they put up graphics showing major bull and bear runs compared to sentiment demonstrating that the letter writers in the II survey were generally completely wrong at major turning points. Last time it was on I recognized the graphic they were putting up and copied the information. They must have shown bulls, bears and correction people because I calculated and saved the Bull/(bull+bear) number with the magnitude of the moves that followed for 8 episodes it showed since 1963. However from the information I don't know how many times sentiment got to extremes and just worked itself off with just a minor correction as we have seen most recently or how much money you would have left on or off the table moving prematurely in a case where sentiment remained extreme for a long time before a major market move actually occurred. This is obviously why in a good successful model like Bob's many factors are taken into account in varying degrees of importance, a very difficult task that few have been successful at over time. I guess if someone's interested they can contact Investors Intelligence to see what type of back information is available. By the way when Garzarelli gave her famous sell signal I believe Michael Burke the publisher of II was also bearish though maybe someone can confirm that Marc