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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (1221)	7/18/1998 2:35:00 AM
From: space cadet	Respond to of 2578

Larry, great going. Glad to hear you've made out well. So have I but maybe not quite as much as you made. Have you hit 7 figures yet? I haven't though I am solidly in the 6's finally. However I think the going will be much tougher in a few weeks when this incredible rally peters out. That will be the time to buy puts. I will do that, even though my put record is not pretty. With all the moolah I've made, I can afford to spend a little on my put education. I should have taken some of my softie money into dell when you said to but that's ok, I only doubled my money from then instead of whatever return you have achieved- 3, 4 or 5 times, whatever. I used to think that aol was going to dramatically correct. I no longer feel that way. It definitely is going higher. Is there any chance in your opinion that this is the long sought blow-off top of this great bull market? With msft, dell, csco now sporting 100 p/e's and broadcast.com, etc. it is starting to look that way to me. And I know someone who just make a quick 1 million bucks in Manhattan real estate in two years. To me all these are signs of a top. Of course, it just may be a very temporary top like last year but nevertheless I'm going to play it as a top starting in Aug-Sept. I noticed I seem to make all my money around earnings reports. I think you and I really have learned how to play the game. It seems so easy. However, I don't really know how to make big bucks in the gap in between earnings reports. Do you? I guess I could sell covered calls on my calls in the interim for some steady income, but it seems the big bucks are made at earnings. Do you think the small caps will finally see some action in the next while? I may do a little bottom fishing with some of my winnings, especially in the decimated tech sector a la cymi, vlsi, etc. Still I suspect they will not really soar but maybe I'll make a few bucks in the interim.

To: larry who wrote (1221)	7/18/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Larry, regarding the sale of Dell shares prior to next earnings announcement. I have given this matter some more thought. I have concluded the following: 1) Dell exceeded the last earnings estimate by 2 cents, and the stock corrected around 18 to 20%. Then, as we know, the stock went up like a rocket. 2) The buying or selling of stock is normally accompanied by a degree of risk/reward. 3) Given (2), I have concluded that the sale of the stock prior to the next earnings announcement carries a greater risk than reward. That is, if Dell misses the whisper number, and corrects by 20% again, then takes off...one is likely to miss time the event and lose some money. Timing the market, or stock purchase is always a risky business. 4) Having reviewed the comments that Michael Dell and his executive staff made at yesterdays shareholder meeting, I must conclude that things are going quite well for the company. If not, I doubt that Michael Dell would have been so positive for the company's future. With the next earnings announcement only a few weeks away, I believe that they would have been more conservative in their comments if they knew of a problem that would affect the earnings report. 5) So, unless something develops between now and the earnings release date, I'm going to hold the stock. Appreciate your thoughts. Stock Bull PS: I also believe that a 2:1 stock split will be announced along with the earnings report. The timing of this split makes sense to me. Also, at the current stock's price, I think its a given that the stock will split.