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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (11666)	7/17/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Dr. Pancho, You know that I long DELL and was very bullish on the issue based on its past performance. However, I have to say that I am shocked at the performance it had in the last 8 sessions. Absolutely crazy. But technically I like the stock because it's going to add another 25-30 point within the next month. And watch out for AOL. As much as I hate their service, I have to say that I love the stock. I believe that it will flex its muscle and add another 20-30 point before they report on August 4th. Also more prediction on YHOO! and AMZN. They will reach 230 and 160 sometime during the next month. Another wave of internet mania is coming, and the YHOO! split and AMZN report should boost it. (THey will correct later this year for sure.) Just curious, I have heard lots of rumors with respect to AOL's fraudulent accounting. Any truth behind the rumors? The market is really getting ahead of itself and the worst thing is that the big blue chips are all overbought, while small issues either lag the market or make 52 week low. The deteriarating market internal situation is a strong indication that the investor confidence is low, although the SI bull/bear ratio is at historical high. I think that the wise bulls should be really careful . The time to liquidate portfolio is probably coming. I think that I am sounding more and more like a bear. larry!

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (11666)	7/18/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: poodle	Respond to of 18691

<< ... on DELL. It makes sense to believe this stock may join internet mania. After all they are probably the company claiming the highest and most profitable stream of web related revenues.>> Pancho, it doesn't look like Internet mania only. It's "users" or "customers" stocks category. If you are using product, you should buy the stock [because you are an expert]. Internet is just the best example. A lot of people are using it, so using YAHOO! etc. and also using Internet brokers. Many of them have Dell too close to their nose when they are trading. Very similar situation is in biotech. People are buying stock because they use the drug (or would like to use if it's potential drug). This logic may bring you too far. For example if the company produces drug to cure schizophrenia ... Forget about valuation. It doesn't exist. Are we "Idealists" here, optimists about human nature? You couldn't believe that someone can buy Internet stocks even several months ago. Why? Probably because you believe that people are smart, educated and ready to work hard to get some money. Look around. It's easier for me to be Kynikos, however. Relaxing Friday evening... . Poodle.