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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: EliBenTedrus who wrote (10733)7/17/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: DancesWithFedCalls  Respond to of 164684
 
EliBenTedrus: Any thoughts from the short term options traders? I stay clear of those derivatives myself... especially the near term ones.

Seems like good advice. I just watched another bunch of put contracts expire worthless today, just as they have for the last three expiration dates (and this time I think I only had about 90 of them, the smallest number of contracts I've held since I became an Amazon bear! And that number just keeps getting smaller!). Ouch!

I think it is going to take a dramatic overall market correction or a quarterly report that shows evidence of slowing revenue growth to finally bring this stock back down to reality. It also looks like AMZN will have quite a few support (or resistance) levels to push through (100, 94, 75, 45...) on the way down, so any descent could take quite some time.

Another big source of support also comes from the new generation of shorts that jump on every few weeks. I imagine that squeezing shorts will probably be a tempting and profitable enterprise for awhile yet.

Back in April and May, I thought I'd be smart and give myself a little more breathing room and skip June, and buy July puts, but obviously, that approach has failed me.

I am probably going to stick with Jan options now, since that expiration date will include the October quarterly report (which is when I believe we will finally seem some evidence that the competition is having an impact), and, assuming that the stock does tank before then, will also allow me to take advantage of any further decline that results from tax-loss selling (which should be significant if the stock price drops quickly).

-dances