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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (57290)7/17/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 58324
 
IOM: EMERALD RESEARC increased estimate for quarter ending
09/98 from $-0.02 to $0.00 on 07/14/98
IOM: EMERALD RESEARC increased estimate for quarter ending
12/98 from $0.03 to $0.05 on 07/14/98



To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (57290)7/17/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Cogito  Respond to of 58324
 
>><< According to the Conference Call, OEM Zip drive sales have a negative Gross Margin - They are sold at a loss. >>

Another one of my assumptions proven true.<<

Ken -

Actually, no. You have said all along that OEM sales were at a loss. It was stated during this conference call that OEM drive margins were negative for the first time during this quarter.

It was also stated that the new version of the ATAPI Zip drive, the one used by OEMs, will cost 8 bucks less per unit. Also, that it is the most rugged Zip drive ever built.

- Allen



To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (57290)7/17/1998 10:56:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
 
Ken: If IOM ever, and I mean ever posts a profit on their Zip drives again, I will personally kick the CEO in the balls. The dumbest possible thing IOM could ever do would be to post a profit on their Zip drives. Indeed, IOM wants to take as much a loss as the Justice Department will let them take on their ZIP drives. Moreover, Ken, over time I could care less just how many Zips you purchase. The issue is not how many, but what percentage of the market IOM has in the high density removable storage market. IOM doesen't aim to be GE. It aims to be a leader in the high density removable storage market, and if it's three disks a year for every drive installed, then so be it, because the money is in the disks. It's that simple, and it's a conclusion that you even concede as being true. Why doesen't IOM want to make money in the drives? First, because the money is in the disks, so it's not a problem making its overall profit. Second, because the OEM model dictates that a manufacturer of high density removable drives not make money on the drives. And most importantly, the prospect of sustaining huge initial loses on installing a base of say five to ten million drives is an incredibly dissuasive fact that would deter the most determined potential competitor of IOM. And this is precisely the scenario that any new competitor of IOM faces. So Ken, for the short sighted compulsive easy buck investor, the fact IOM has made no money recently on its drives may be a problem, but for the determined long-term investor it's great news. Indeed, it is doubtful if any newcomer to this business could make money on the drives. And for those who can't see the forest because of the trees, one might pause and reflect just how lucky IOM was to have both made money on its drives because it grew in an aftemarket arena, which no longer exists, and to have built an installed base of 15 million while doing so. I can assure you, and any flunky out of North Texas State that that achievement will never again be repeated.

As an aside, the $40 million in negative cash flow was not that discouraging. The days of the world's goofiest ad campaign ever are about to end, and the transition to an OEM model demonstrates the pain any potential competitor will need to endure just to add a third of the 15 million drives that IOM already has.

Finally, notwithstanding the recent terrible performance of this stock the past year, one might pause and consider the stock performances the past four years of three different stocks:

techstocks.com

The three companies represent of course Iomega, the favorite of many loyalists, Quigley, the favorite of Mr. Rocky Reid, and FPAM, the favorite of recent IOM pest Vanni Resta. Yeah, I know the old IOM is an old story. And you are right it is. But so is the old hoary short sell story for IOM. It's day in the sun has come and gone too. The new story is a low margin dominant player in the removable storage field that will richly reward its shareholders over time.



To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (57290)7/17/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Respond to of 58324
 
Ken: There are two other charts I wish to share with you in terms of where I feel IOM is at, which is the trough of the low end storage market business.

techstocks.com

techstocks.com

As these charts demonstrate, IOM is priced very reasonably relative to a player such as SEG; IOM has had terrible returns for the past year and a half just as Seagate; IOM has had giant size returns for the past five years just like Seagate.

I am sorry, but the bears are now the Johnny come latelys on this stock.