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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: put2rich who wrote (11674)	7/17/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 18691

TD, I will not endorse short sell DELL at any price until after I see their earnings report. I mean, DELL is guaranteed to beat first call by several pennies and that it would slightly open up the following day. If at that time you decided that the report is not good enough to sustain the price movement, short at the open and enjoy the 10-20 point down ride. Shorting DELL before earning report is very dangerous. If they, say, beat first call by a 'whopping' 5 cents, and remains bullish in their future prospects (I have not yet heard one single time that MD is concerning about slowing of future growth! He was still bullish when they missed quarter in 1993), then DELL bulls can easily push the issue up another 10-20 points, assuming that the market does not turn south at that time. Two weeks ago I called an urgent trading buy on DELL at low 90s. Still think that the there is more steam in the pipeline. Somehow I was very accurate at calling the market direction in the last 12 months and probably I will trade more based on gut feeling in the near future. Also if I were shorters, I would not touch AOL!, AMZN!, and YHOO! in the next 60 days. It's too dangerous and all these issues can rally another 30-50% from their current level without a blink. When valuation gets out of control, they will remain overvalued for a significant period of time until after a market correction. I don't see a significant difference between PE 500 and 1000, if they are already at that level, and the usual investors probably won't care about that either. larry!