Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (5354)	7/20/1998 3:17:00 AM
From: Peter Singleton	Respond to of 9719

fyi, found on the AMAT thread. btw, I recommend finding and following a good technology thread, even if you're not invested in the sector. there are some real smart folks doing some quality big picture thinking on the other side of SI ... the following article is a great example of "aren't bull markets great!" check this out. GNP unexpectedly goes south Q2. Fed may have to lower rates. Stocks will keep going up. hey, gotta run ... my barber's got a couple of great stock tips for me. : ) Peter Sunday July 19, 6:00 pm Eastern Time WALL STREET WEEK AHEAD - Buzz about lower rates By Marjorie Olster NEW YORK, July 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street will be abuzz with talk of lower interest rates this week after a number of highly respected firms predicted a contraction in second quarter gross domestic product. On the earnings front, results from major money center banks, battered oil companies, and blue chip IBM (IBM - news) will be the focus. One person will have a dramatic impact on financial markets in the coming days but his name is still not known -- the next prime minister of Japan. The choice of a reform-minded leader could go a long way toward reassuring investors. New data that showed a ballooning of the U.S. international trade deficit in May led some top Wall Street investment banks to slash their second-quarter GDP forecasts on Friday. That was enough to spark speculation in the stock market that the Federal Reserve may have to cut short-term rates. The news should keep markets riveted on Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony on the economy and monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. ''If the economy is going to slow more than expected and the Fed does have to lower rates, it will be a net positive for international markets,'' said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's Industry Reports. Stovall predicted the market would see new highs this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 index all ended last week at new records amid easing concerns about earnings and Asia. The Dow closed Friday up nine at 9,337. ''We have been seeing earnings better than a lot had been expecting,'' Stovall said, adding if that trend continues, the market could extend its rally. In May, the international trade deficit swelled 10.3 percent to a record $15.75 billion as the Asian financial crisis depressed exports while imports jumped. Merrill Lynch said it now expected a 1.O percent decline in GDP for the quarter, Salomon Smith Barney predicted a 0.5 percent drop, and Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Securities forecast a 1.5 percent shrinkage. Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs still see a modest rise. ''We are not having a recession,'' said Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch. ''But the economy has stopped. Growth has stopped.'' Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said the buzz about lower rates had been in the market for the past week and was a key factor propelling stocks to new highs. ''What has been driving us? Excluding earnings, that has probably been it. If we are in an environment of lower interest rates going forward, then equities are not fairly valued,'' he said. He added that third quarter GDP would be ''hugely affected'' to the downside by the strike at General Motors (GM - news) plants. The growth outlook is both a blessing and a curse for the stock market, analysts said. While lower interest rates favor stocks, slower growth makes it more difficult for corporations to boost profits. Although second quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to be far below year-ago levels, First Call research director Chuck Hill said it should comfortably top the current 1.5 percent estimate. First Call tracks earnings estimates. Hill said profit growth would probably reach about four percent, taking into account overtrimming of two to three percent by analysts just prior to the reporting season based on overly conservative guidance from companies. That compares with 11 percent growth in the same period last year. Among companies due to report this week, Hill said energy companies' earnings will show they had a very tough quarter while bank earnings should be strong. IBM is due out Monday. ''What is worrisome is we are seeing some acceleration in the downward revisions on third quarter,'' Hill said. Profit growth is now seen at 8.5 percent in the third quarter, down from estimates of about 15 percent at the start of the year. The other major feature of the week for financial markets will be the election of a new leader by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The three candidates are Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, considered the most conventional of the candidates, conservative Seiroku Kajiyama and Health Minister Junichiro Koizumi, a 56-year-old political maverick with a blue-blood pedigree. Financial markets have chosen Kajiyama as a clear favorite. The 72-year-old veteran has gained favor with a drastic plan to clean up the banking system.

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (5354)	7/20/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: Cytokine1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 7/20/98 Change $393 UP 0.20% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^IXB UP 1.32% YTD EQUITY CHANGE 28.8% # CURRENT DAILY CURRENT COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHANGE %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= CLTR 1000 24.00 -1.00 -4.00% 24000 10.88 10875 120.7% 11.5% INCY 1000 41.59 -0.41 -0.97% 41594 29.41 29409 41.4% 19.9% SEPR 272 50.31 1.75 3.60% 13685 37.55 10214 34.0% 6.5% MOGN 2000 8.13 -0.13 -1.52% 16250 7.00 14000 16.1% 7.8% INHL 500 28.94 -0.31 -1.07% 14469 23.13 11563 25.1% 6.9% AVIR 737 32.13 0.25 0.78% 23676 27.88 20544 15.2% 11.3% GENZ 830 27.31 0.69 2.58% 22669 25.17 20893 8.5% 10.8% GZTC 2000 7.63 0.13 1.67% 15250 7.737 15475 -1.5% 7.3% DURA 200 25.75 -1.00 -3.74% 5150 24.63 4925 4.6% 2.5% MLNM 300 17.25 -0.50 -2.82% 5175 18.63 5588 -7.4% 2.5% LGNDW 3000 6.38 0.13 2.00% 19125 8.75 26250 -27.1% 9.1% ABSC 1000 8.00 0.50 6.67% 8000 11.19 11189 -28.5% 3.8% ENMD -400 32.06 -0.50 -1.54% -12825 34.06 -13625 5.9% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 196218 167298 17.3% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 13625 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 53.6% MIN 30% (91839) BUYING POWER $ ______ 13340 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 118004 100000 18.0% OPTIONS 10 July call options for AGPH $35 @1 5/16 ^IXB INDEX 339.58 4.43 1.32% 302.42 12.3% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- Open limit sell order, 260 shrs GENZ @ $35 6/26/98 -1312.5 AGPH bought 10 contracts July call options at $35 @ 1 5/16 6/26/98 7000 MOGN sold 1000 @ $7.00 gain 0% 6/26/98 7611.22 AVIR sold 263 @ $28.94 6/26/98 -11562.5 INHL bought 500 @ $23.125