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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AHale who wrote (2942)	7/19/1998 7:01:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Thank you, AHale. The parallels between today's "New Era" and the late '20s are indeed overwhelming. You have read my posts. You know where I stand. I'm talking economics and the stock market (which is clearly in an advanced bubble stage). Don't know about wars and other long wave interpretations. The Millennium Crash will cause many changes, including global politics, but I cannot say what and when. The combination of a bubble and the Millennium Bug is explosive. The total $16 Trillion of US markets will be more then halved in less then two years. Maybe decimated. The evaporation of capital will cause a big depression in the western world. The '30s brought Hitler and Stalin. No guessing what would the new millennium bring. The Japanese bubble was IMO the first time in history that a bubble deflated in an orderly and to some extent controlled manner. Bubbles usually end with a bang. In recent history we had the SEA markets' examples, all different. The Thai stock exchange lost 80% (four fifths) in local currency in little over two years, but this happened only after two and a half years of moderate down motion, and not immediately after the top. Now it looks like leveling at the bottom. The Hong Kong exchange bears the most striking resemblance to Wall Street of the late '20, and should it continue to imitate the '30s, it is expected to continue in decimating it's value in a severe bear for years. I believe the current bubble will end with a bang. The best technical indicator that the long term trend has reversed would be when the market would drop under 200 DMA, correct up to that line, and would fail to cross it back up. Last October, the Dow closed under the 200 DMA once, and shot back up. The OEX came close but never crossed its 200 DMA. DMA