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Technology Stocks : OBJECT DESIGN Inc.: Bargain of the year!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (2159)	7/18/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3194

I was a bit curious about the 4 cents per share net income (allowing for all dilution). My rough mental arithmetic told it it was closer to 3. I just did the calculation, and it was 3.53 cents. So the rounding error this time around was about as flattering as it can get. If the company could just cruise steadily at this level (which I don't think anybody believes is a realistic scenario; the market is too turbulent for that) the company would have net income of 14 cents a year which puts it on a P/E of 50 at $7. Sure, on one hand the tax losses will run out some time, but on the other hand nobody can deny that the historical trend growth for ODIS is at least 25%. The valuation is not too stretched at this level in my opinion. But I do agree with ahhaha that it's impossible to be certain that the next quarter will be as good as Q2 (although I expect it will be better) so I expect quite a lot of volatility this quarter.

To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (2159)	7/19/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 3194

I've been 70% in cash since April in my management account and am very proud of it. I've made good gains on the remaining 30% except with my gold holdings. I'm proud because I'm resisting the ugly mob and staying with the objective facts. I was a boy plunger in the '60s and have seen a real cycle. The last three years are unique in stock market history. The greater your skill and experience, the poorer has been your return over this period. If you have gone in and out, it has been a relative disaster. My growing bearish tendency is built on observable data. There isn't anyone left on the planet that can even understand the intrinsic elements of my bearishness. Greenspan once could, but he's gotten old and fat. Those who could understand are all dead or in hiding and they never conveyed the legacy of their knowledge. Certainly it exists in books, but they don't read them at the university because they're considered some sort of "Voodoo". There is no intrinsic difference between now and the '70s when mass perception was extraordinarily negative. The mass perception was all wrong. Now the mass perception is prejudiced in the other direction without sufficient cause just like is expressed in your reply. It's going to be all wrong again. I get investment feedback from all over the place. It is neither bearish nor bullish from a pro or contrary position. There is no "opinion" to be contrary, so that is the thing to be contrary. The no opinion is the acceptance of the psychological milieu which is expectations of endless prosperity. The public is cautious so the mood is considered constructive. It is this inurement that begs contrariety. The psychology is to be long. I am contrary to the inurement and nothing I've seen makes me want to change in the slightest. If anything there is a growing propensity to speculative excess in the OTC large caps and this is happening even though it is well-known that their profitability is slowing as stated by their managements. The slowing can be seen in the negative divergence in Russell 2000. Others see that kind of divergence. If it doesn't catch up, it and the other facts will sew the seeds of growing doubt. It is those seeds that prepare the bed of the seed for the water of excuses like interest rate changes. If the market slows because of slowing overall profitability, that can't be good news for all those experts that have succeeding in refuting Ahhaha's guess about ODIS earnings. It is those triumphs that inure you're prejudices and enable you to hold as the stock plunges. I sure hope the game holds up long enough so I can sell my little piece left of ODIUS to those men of courage. Slowing profitability of major companies to whom ODIS sells can't be helpful to the company either. Deflation of multiples market wide coupled with a dent in earnings may make 4 attractive again. Yes, you may quote me in the future on this because then I will have had the chance to get out.