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To: DanZ who wrote (15372)7/18/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Paul Dubsky  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
SDTI, DWRX, VLSI, LTCW

Hi Dan, Ron, Sue, et al! It's good to be following your posts again. Dan, I know your take on DWRX, VLSI and LTCW (all seem to be value plays in growth sectors), but what's your view of SDTI, Security Dynamics? Seems to be firming up on the technical side of things, and is in the right business, security. So, fundamentally, while competition is sure to come out of the wood work, it's always good to be the first the the biggest as you can hold up in bad times. Last 5 days haven't looked good for SDTI, falling from around $18 to $15.50, with an even worse 30 day picture.

The always so foward looking analysts are downgrading the heck out of SDTI due to some short term product transition issues and distribution channel changes, but that seems to be internal to the company, and not to the market. Presuming they can pull it off, aren't we looking at a gem of a buy right here?

What am I missing? Just like DWRX, LTCW which are priced lower than dirt, I don't seem to be able to see what everyone else sees?

Thanks for your commments.



To: DanZ who wrote (15372)7/19/1998 7:20:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
Dan

>>>Did you really catch a 500 pound tuna?

ok, fishermans brag time

Friday caught one at 550 pounds, first of the season

Sat
got a 2nd one
112 inches long (yes Virginia, size does matter)
760 pounds
girth slightly bigger than nemers' VBZG
the biggest, strongest fish I've ever caught
3 1/2 hours on rod and reel to get it to the harpoon and gaff
then another hour for the three of us to get it into the boat using block and tackle and a lot of swearing and sweat

to give an idea just how big these suckers are; when it was dressed out; the head alone weighed 100 pounds 8 ozs

the only bad part is that these fish have just arrived here from down South and have not had time to feed and put on fat; fat is what Japan wants for the fish they buy for susi/sashimi

we will be lucky to get maybe $2000 for this fish; I'll know after the bids come in from todays auction
by late Sept this fish would likely weigh close to 900 and would sell for $6000-10,000
depending on what the US$/Yen exchange rate is at that time

our wonderful federal fisheries management has put over half of the 600 metric ton quota early in the year when the fish aint worth a lick, then a smaller quota later when the fish are worth twice per pound than the present quote for your DWRX

two years ago we sold a 500+ pounder for $17 a pound
right now $3 is about all anyone is getting
sad to kill these beautiful critters for pennies
but still landing a freight train on rod and reel is fun hard work and pain for us old timers
need to go to the store today to buy more Advil; ouch, I'm a hurting puppy

PS
thanks for asking so I could answer and brag ggggggg

PSS
I'll take a look at your DWRX later today



To: DanZ who wrote (15372)7/20/1998 7:39:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
Dan DWRX

>>> I was just wondering if you have an opinion on DWRX
>>>Considering that the company isn't in liquidation, I think it is severely undervalued at $9
>>> Is this is a stock that you would buy and hold? I'm planning to put it away for a while and was wondering if you see something in the balance sheet that I missed

I don't think that you missed much

the "accounting" book is about $8
the "liquidation" book is about $4
I'd say the "perceiced investor" book is say $6

I would not buy here:

value/dogs are so out of favor, for good or bad

I do not understand their product/industry; have no idea what the demand is or may be going forward; do not know how they stack up against competitive products

Is it "severely undervalued at $9"; I really have no idea

imsiders have sold a % of their holdings the last two "open" windows in Feb and May at 18-22

Friday was a major sell off; there might be a DCB today

If I had to guess I'd say this messes around in the $7 to 10 range for a while; downside to 6; upside to 12; so risk/reward about a push

What I would like to see here is a 10-25% stock buyback; they have plenty of cash for that
If not are they saying they need all that cash to fund future losses or to make acquisitions that they can not now do with stock priced in the cellar?

I am of little help reading this one; best of luck on it