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To: CPAMarty who wrote (3724)7/18/1998 5:51:00 PM
From: Larry J.  Respond to of 5058
 
At the risk of a gross over-simplification, I'd suggest that if RDRT can make the most dense, technologically advanced, highest quality heads that are manufacturable at a competitive cost in very high volumes the DD makers will buy and RDRT will thrive.

From comments made during the CC, RDRT is arguably making significant strides to assume the leadership position in the high density arena. Completed my RDRT position on Fri. @ 8 5/16.

Now a 6 point move and I'm buying me a Boxster!

Larry



To: CPAMarty who wrote (3724)7/18/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Stitch  Respond to of 5058
 
Marty;

<<Just listened to the QNTM CC. Internal head production is still running losses.

So there is no confusion let me stipulate that IMO QNTM/MKE 's head operation is still running at a loss. And I note, with some interest, both QNTM's and Seagate's expressed intent to rely more heavily on outside head sources. Let me make clear what I am saying regarding their internal operations. Both organizations have shown recent improvements in yields on MR production. While they are publicly stating that they will rely more heavily on outside sources I think they are simply resetting the bar. You know, disappointment is the sum of the difference between expectations and reality. Absence of disappointment is when those two sides of the equation are equal in value. To eliminate disappointment you can work either, or both, sides of the equation. The net result is the same if my information is accurate. Less heads, going forward, to be purchased. Now, as to who gets those orders? Stay tuned. That is the question RDRT investors want to get answered more then anything. The DD sector will always have a leading independent supplier, maybe two. For now, TDK/SAE, IBM, Yamaha, and ALPS, seem to be doing fairly well, although I am hearing storys of IBM having yield difficulties. In my opinion IBM has never proven to be a capable OEM supplier of anything except for very recent successes with disk drives. Their OEM head supply plans are still an unproven venture. TDK is said to be making money but who knows. Japanese manufactures have been famous for sacrificing profits for market share. Their is a drama here and a possible turn-around story. I just can't convince myself it is worth investing in at this time. But I can root on the sidelines. I want this company to make it. But not so much so that I am willing to make any donations.

Best,
Stitch




To: CPAMarty who wrote (3724)7/19/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: Dennis R. Duke  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5058
 
I took a one year stock chart. Applied to it the increases in short interest. And found some interesting patterns.

These are generalizations, but:

October, 1997 short interest rose 9.04% and the stock fell from $25 to $20.

December, 1997 short interest rose 15.62% and the stock fee from $20 to $15.

May and June, 1998 short interest rose 39.9% and the stock fell from $15 to $7 and recovered to around $10.

My rough conclusion is that it is taking increased %age increases in shorts to drop the stock $5. Could it be that the shorts have played this one for all they can get, and they will retreat in July?

Only time will tell, but the activity and its effect on the stock price I thought was interesting to note. It strikes me that at $7 they found the bottom. Let's hope the shorts have yet to cover. As of June's report there were 6,294,610 shares held short.

A buying panic would be fun!

(-8 Dennis 8-)