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To: John Lacelle who wrote (48035)	7/18/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Respond to of 58727

John, I know it is popular to think the market is going to "blow" because it has been going up so rapidly and valuations are at all time highs. But I don't think any correction in the next few years will be very severe for several reasons. Long term interest rates are at record lows and declining (probably 15% more in the next year). Commodity prices are declining: Industries can pay less, sell at the same price, and make bigger profits or pay better wages. Demographics: Baby-boomers are in their peak earning years and have a LOT of discretionary income, some of which is buying more products, and some of which is going into the market. Declining inventories: This was a major driver of past boom and bust cycles, but technology has allowed them to be significantly reduced, and it will only get better in the future. Tight labor markets: I get a lot of overtime. My wife spends a little more and I put the rest into the market. Final thought: Some people are concerned about the possibility of a major correction. That causes an occasional correction of minor significance. It is sort of like small earthquakes relieving fault stress, preventing really big earthquakes. In summary, I think all the factors are stacked against those betting on a bust. Jack

To: John Lacelle who wrote (48035)	7/18/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 58727

John, I for one called the top in the Japanese market. Many around me thought "they" were different! Great "quote" at the end of your post, I will have to remember that one! Regards, LG

To: John Lacelle who wrote (48035)	7/18/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 58727

Helium was an early analogy by me which Don adopted and brought to the next level with Hydrogen. The only problem I have with the market is that I'm afraid it will come down while I'm away on vacation and I will miss the biggest move. I don't trade IPOs. I do get ticked off royally at the number of brokers who call to tell me I should buy them now....after the IPO. Why do they bug me now, after the IPO. Here are two I got calls on twice last week. RENEF and ROSDF. Next time, they should call me BEFORE the stock is public. Else, lose my freaking number. I don't wish to be bothered by some retail guy who can't respect the fact that I am working here. I told the guy I would buy the stock in my own account and bagged it. I don't care what the IPO does if I was not in it. I hate brokers.....let me tell you why. Because I make a living trading the market and they make a living selling the concept of the market. This issue would not have set me off as much if I did not suddenly have the IBD crowd jammin' my phone lines while I'm working....otherwise I would be more patient with respect to these name-buying cold-calling guys. Just a piece of advice. Don't ever give your name/phone number to Bill O'Neil of the Investor's Business Daily. You will get phone calls from cold caller's for years. Take it from me. It's true. As an ex-broker I've been able to talk to some of these guys and ask where they got my name from. Investor's Daily sells it. They have no class.

To: John Lacelle who wrote (48035)	7/18/1998 6:28:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 58727

Actually, I missed the point of your post because I am in a scattered frame of mind. The U.S. Market is very close to the Japanese just before the breakdown but the U.S. Market has much more going for it. I am a bit rushed so I will say only that my opinion is that the U'S. Market has much danger involved (in my opinion) but not nearly as much risk is involved as the Japanese market because there is more stability here vs the Asian markets. The longer term posturing of the U.S. Market is such that in the U.S. Damn. got interrupted by my wife. I don't know. Whatever I was saying, the general idea was that America is more stable than Asia.