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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14643)	7/18/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 116764

Hi George, >>>Asian rally shows severe technical weakness. When something fails to respond strongly to good news, the odds are it is headed lower. New lows for POG and a selling climax in the gold stocks look like a good bet before this grizzly is put to pasture.<<<< I think you are right on all accounts, could have one more leg down for a flush on gold to get rid of almost all the gold bulls (except us off course -ggg-) Could be very soon. This consolidation period we have been going looks like it will resolve itself downward and that will be the spike bottom, we are looking for. I went to a AAII seminar with a market technical analyst and economist who discussed Deflation and Gold. Used a book by Roy Jastram, The Gold Constant who expansively studied gold in all economic enviroments which showed that gold performs much better in a deflationery than inflationery environment. Other tidbits for the seminar: Hong Kong Real Estate 10x the size of the 89 Japanese real estate bubble and Mark Faber called it the "Greatest Boom in the history of Mankind - though he wasn't around for tulipmania. Enough bicycle plants in China to supply the world bicycles for the next 20 years. Hong Kong debt in 97 was 50% of GDP, currently 120% GDP. Discussed Kondreitiff cycle. The real prosperity times were post war when real wages peaked in 73 (one wage earner family), since then real wages and personal savings have dropped like a rock, while overtime hours worked have skyrocketed. We are in a dead cat bounce (or plateau) properity wave coming out of the 80-2 recession (multi-decade unemployment record). This is the same cycle period as the roaring 20's. Asian problems began in 1994 when China devalued and put the crunch on the rest of Asia. Calls 146 yen as critical level. He thinks gold could move up faster than anybody can imagine (my crash-up in the XAU still has a chance -g-), because corporate America will demand a devaluation of the dollar in order to stay competitive (this provides the same result as using tariffs in the 30's) Frank Barbera writes the Gold Stock Technician newsletter. He is the local LA business channel Market analyst. I put a lot of weight in he says because he is not a perennial gloom and doomer or gold bug, strictly a t/a guy who follows his indicators. He likes to follow the XAU for trading purposes because the volitility is much greater than the S&P. bobby b.