Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thean who wrote (1182)	7/19/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

Thean: I want you to look at something. Compare a chart of the INDU for the last two yrs starting w/ Jan to a chart of the INDU starting in dec of 1928 thru Aug of 1929. There's some startling similarities. A dip at the beginning of the move followed by 6 months of consolidation, a move sharply higher, a slight correction and then an almost vertical move (much like what we are experiencing now.) The % gains are also almost identical for the period of '97-'98 and '28-'29. Even if it means nothing, it is kind of interesting. The mkt of '29 peaked in mid Aug after spectacular gains. mmmm? check this idiot out. I hope he was kidding, but unfortunately I think he was being serious. The following stmt is exactly why we are headed for disaster.. ie- there is no fear. Otherwise known as COMPLACENCY. The last time I heard talk like this was two places: Japan about 8 years ago and in history books and old newspapers descriing the investor psychie in early 1929. When this drunken party ends, people like this are going to be wiped out. It's going to destroy the entire economy because of the huge public involvement. On the bright side, this stmt did make me laugh thou Message 5239507 John, I know it is popular to think the market is going to "blow" because it has been going up so rapidly and valuations are at all time highs. But I don't think any correction in the next few years will be very severe for several reasons. Long term interest rates are at record lows and declining (probably 15% more in the next year). Commodity prices are declining: Industries can pay less, sell at the same price, and make bigger profits or pay better wages. Demographics: Baby-boomers are in their peak earning years and have a LOT of discretionary income, some of which is buying more products, and some of which is going into the market. Declining inventories: This was a major driver of past boom and bust cycles, but technology has allowed them to be significantly reduced, and it will only get better in the future. Tight labor markets: I get a lot of overtime. My wife spends a little more and I put the rest into the market. Final thought: Some people are concerned about the possibility of a major correction. That causes an occasional correction of minor significance. It is sort of like small earthquakes relieving fault stress, preventing really big earthquakes. In summary, I think all the factors are stacked against those betting on a bust. Jack