To: charred who wrote (9395 ) 7/20/1998 9:59:00 AM From: Avalon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10836
Charred..and Carl Charred... In response to my story about Jerry, you say..."so what, big deal"..??!? Sorry, but I consider it relevant. Why? Simply because it reveals a pattern in Jerry's behavior. Hit (when you're on a computer thousands of miles away) and Run (when you are faced with the reality that your accusations have been proven false)...never mind about proof...never mind about posting many times about his desire to interview me and then chickening out when he had the opportunity....and then denial of the facts. Quite interesting for a "reporter", dontcha think?? I suggest to you that your dislike for Carson should not blind you to the reality of Collins...nor should it mean that you automatically support him because he is Carson's primary antagonist. These are two very different concepts...IMO. Carl... With respect to your post, I would like to separate..at this time anyway...the concept of promoted vs. hyped. The difference being "promoted" defined as an action initiated by the company for some purpose and "hyped" defined as overenthusiastic people knowingly saying or posting unrealistic or false expectations and information in an effort to drive the share price upwards and maintain that momentum. FWIW, I do not believe that there was a promotion here..there is no apparent reason for it. Many people point to the BoD exercising options and selling their shares during the peak. What they fail to mention is that these same directors..Nihon in particular, did the same thing when the price was much lower. If I remember correctly, even the bulk of MO's options were exercised in 1997 were at levels that were half the price of when he exercised that last tranche in Jan or Feb of this year. In addition, when you add up the potential profit that the BoD made on these transactions, it is extremely low...I believe somewhere in the range of 2 million...with MO's share being about half. To suggest the MO was given the leeway to initiate a promotion for his own benefit and at the risk of soiling the reputations of the other directors in ,IMO, ridiculous. As far as KRY being hyped...yes, there can be absolutely no doubt about that. Whether it was by professionals or not, I do not know. You said something interesting.. "All you've got is text, no body language, no voice inflection - very, very tough. In real human contact, most of the communication is non-verbal, and that's totally missing here" True enough...which was one of the main reasons I took the trip from TO to BC...I wanted to meet the people who I have been communicating with over the past several months and make my own judgements as to their credibility. While there, I met with most if not all of the people who might be considered as the "main" posters on SH and some on SI..Mesa1,rmb,The Listener,Tanoose etc. etc. I have also spoken , on the phone, to some of the people who were not there like CB, Teddie,Fulvio etc. I was able to make up my own mind as to the credibility of these people and their views...and I was not able to find one whom I would consider "suspicious". For reasons that have been posted on SH and which I will not go into here, I do have experience in reading body language, tonality , facial expressions etc etc....so I do trust my judgement. One other thing I sould mention..I met quite a few of the "big" KRY shareholders..some of them were even the ones that initially wrote some cheques in a PP some time back. These people were also left with an investment that lost most of its value. Some were "sophisticated" investors, others were not so. The two things they all had in common was that 1) They all accepted the current status of their investment and 2) NONE of them blamed MO, the BoD , Carson or hype for their losses. They all knew MO and the BoD on a very friendly basis and I truly find it hard to believe that the company screwed them for the little value the BoD got from this play. I think if you had an opportunity to speak to them, your perspective about KRY and the BoD would change....again...jmo.. There are a couple of posters who provided info that did not come to pass and who I did not meet and whose motives I am suspicious of but ,as I do not even know who they are outside of the forum, I cannot and will not comment on. Yes, there is not doubt that there was a great deal of hype surrounding this play but I am virtually convinced that we (KRY longs and forum participants) essentially dug our own graves by sometimes buying at unrealistic levels based on suppositions and rumours we had heard. The bottom line though, is that everyone who was long on this play had faith and belief in what they understood of the legal arguments...(BTW..I STILL believe that KRY's arguments had a great deal of merit and validity...despite what 4 out of 5 CSJ felt...lol) It was THAT belief and faith that kept them holding....it was the greed that kept them buying...even at prices that could not be justified. I can't speak for anyone else, but I fell into a similar trap...ie. I knew some of the valuations were too high but I kept holding because I was hoping that the decision, which I expected to be in our favour, would be issued before the bubble burst. Unlike Charred, I do believe that KRY can dig itself out of the pit that it is in and I anxiously await round 2, while averaging down. (Please note this last paragraph as it will no doubt make it into Jerry's little black book of "Avalon hyping KRY"...LOL..) Curious how the expression of one's opinion and actions is considered hype...huh?? Over to you :)) AV