Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4460)	7/19/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 7/19/98 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ The Peabody Report: 7/19/98 Useful PFEr Links -6 month PFE Chart and a PFE moving average. dailystocks.net -3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. chart2.bigcharts.com -5 year PFE Price Chart news.com -A Viagra Talk Website bigv.com Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: After setting a Peabody Valley on 7/06/98 (105.63), PFE reached a pending Peabody Peak on 7/14/98 (120.56). The Model continues to predicts that a new Peabody Peak of 126.59 will be reached by July 24, 1998. Commentary PFE is currently in limbo land---- 4% off the pending Peak and 4% off a potential Valley. Accordingly, any good or bad news could push PFE to a new high or to a buying opportunity. The Peabody Valley strike price is 110.92 (the price in which the pending Peabody Peak would be confirmed). Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (7/17/98)......From Today Last Peabody Valley: .... 7/06/98 ....105.63.......... -8.7% ...................-13 Last Peabody Peak:..... 7/14/98......120.56..........+4.2% ...................-5 Pending Forecasted Next Peak ......7/25/98....126.59..........+9.4%.................. 5 Peabody Valley Strike Price...............110.92.........-4.2% Forecasted Next Valley...................... 107.75.........-6.9% (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/12/98): PFE: 117.81, DJ: 9,106: PFE excitement will be balanced by profit-taking near all-time highs and possible disappointing Viagra Rxs effected by the July 4th holiday. Accordingly, expect PFE will move with the Big Pharma sector and the general market. In particular, MRK's earnings report this week will drive PFE and may provide a boost. Da Gut-feel: An up and down week with a battle near 120 and PFE ending flat for the week. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast:MRK never did report...but Da Gut -feel was right on target aided by profit-taking near the all-time high and double-witching last Friday. One thumb up. Peabody PForecast Record (70 weeks): 46-24 (66%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/19/98): PFE: 115.75, DJ: 9,338: Beats me!!!... Only kidding..This should be a very big news week. Expect a strong Viagra Rx report on Monday, a boast by the MRK earnings report, potential PFE Board news on Thursday ( a request for additional authorized shares), and the PFE annual analyst meeting on Friday. Da Gut-feel: A strong PFE week with a close above 120. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio Total return:........................................+96.8% PFE @ 115.75 Annualized return:...............................+90.4% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 100% Since April 1, 1998, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio has added 900 PFE shares to the mythical Peabody Portfolio. (Average price 105.30) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 19 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,500 PFE shares at an average price of $58.81 (only 3.2% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,500 Average Price of Purchases:....... $58.81 Total Costs: ...............................$205,838 Total Market Value:.....................$405,125 Total Potential Profit:...................$199,288 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 Total:............3,500...........$58.81 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: Aggressive PFE buying levels:..................$106 to $110 Conservative PFE buying levels: ...............$99 to $105 ________________________________________ PFuture Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 PFE Board Meeting (?)..................................July 23, 1998 PFE Analysts' Meeting..................................July 24, 1998 International approval of Viagra:.................September- December, 1998 Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......October, 1998 FDA re-review of Zeldox: .............................. Late 1998 Launch of Zeldox:.........................................1999 (?) PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. ____________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late, 998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares could be made as early as July 23, 1998.