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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edwin who wrote (1553)	7/19/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: tcd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

I would buy NVLS over those two in a minute. This deal with NVLS and IBM manufacturing copper threads on boards is about as good as you can get. AMAT has been slow compared to NVLS although NVLS being the newer start-up has appeared to lag in this market but actually it has cost NVLS lots of money to bring their technology to fruition. 1999 and beyond, NVLS should (will) kick butt.

To: Edwin who wrote (1553)	7/19/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 3813

Edwin, I would not consider building a long position in any chipfab stock until the following happen: - new lows are established for the majors, e.g. AMAT below 29, NVLS below 31, etc - Asia truly recovers, not in the press or from political pronouncements, but economically - chipfab stocks base out and show a bottom - western economies begin to see a solid quarter of growth in their GDP after this next contraction I suspect Asia recovery might be several months away, or longer... dont believe the press or this new Japan bullshit... only Taiwan is healthy, and Korea and Japan have yet to see their worst... new US qtrly GDP estimates are showing -0.5% and -1.5% in Q3, Q4 this year... scary figures, confirmed by Salomon and SmithBarney... we may not see a bottom form until after sometime this early autumn or late autumn as for preferred stock, I personally favor the best excluding the biggest... probably Novellus makes the most efficient and state-of-art equipmt... NVLS anticipated the slowdown earlier than rivals, thereby saving money with cuts... AMAT may have $1B writeoff with 12inch wafer tech R&D... KLAC is a truly diversified stock with fab equipmt, testing equipt, and a lot more after their merger two years ago... I like Novellus later, perhaps much later, maybe not until 1999 book/bill is due out this Tuesday for June... could be a shocker below 80%... might actually worsen the following couple months... I think really tough summer ahead... I expect big reversal in chipfabs in next few weeks... orders are being canceled and pushed back all over the place... July is shaping up to be a disaster dont be fooled and drawn in by the chip rally last week... maybe a couple leader chip stocks will be ok, but many lessers will falter... and the chipfabs have not seen their worst yet... suspect widespread downgrades coming very soon on NVLS, AMAT, KLAC, TER, KLIC but then again, I am just a shlep masquerading as an investor / Jim Willie