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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14668)	7/19/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116764

George I've been puzzled by the divergence of the xau and the n225, but when you look at the rally in Asia, it's just like our market very narrow - ONLY Hang Seng and N225. I think gold will have another reason to move. I believe that the dollar will come under extreme pressure from the growing trade imbalance and there is a great possibility of further devaluations in Asia. I think when gold moves it will be quick and will be hard to time. I'm just buying and holding. I believe we are pretty close to a bottom. When/if our market dives (so will $usd), fund managers will be running crazy for the safety of gold issues and because there are so few of them they will behave like internet stocks. bwdik, bb

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14668)	7/19/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116764

Dollar May Fall Vs Yen As Japan's Next Leader Seen Speeding Reform Dollar May Fall vs Yen; Japan Seen Speeding Reform (Repeat) (Repeating story published July 17. Changing dateline.) New York, July 19 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is likely to extend losses in the coming week on speculation that Japan's next prime minister, to be chosen Friday, will accelerate efforts to lift the economy out of recession. ''The market is optimistic that the new leader will push through aggressive, growth-minded reform,'' said Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at J.P. Morgan & Co. in London. That expectation helped take the dollar down 1.4 percent versus the yen last week. It was quoted at 139.63 yen in New York Friday, from 140.21 yen Thursday. Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, favored to become prime minister, proposed tax cuts of 6 trillion yen ($43 billion), while Seiroku Kajiyama, a former chief Cabinet secretary who supports closing weak banks, said the government's existing bank plan is incomplete and more reforms are needed. Both declared their candidacy Friday. They were joined yesterday by Health and Welfare Minister Junichiro Koizumi. All three candidates said the government must spend more to spur economic growth and suspend a long-standing goal of slashing the budget deficit. ''People are more comfortable that the government has the guts to put in place the programs necessary to turn the economy around,'' said Alan Resnick, treasurer at Bausch & Lomb Inc., the Rochester, New York-based eye-care product maker. That's helping bolster the yen. Some traders hope Japan's new government will cut taxes, step up public spending and speed reform of the debt-strapped banking system. In the year ended March 31, the Japanese economy slid into its worst recession in more than half a century. That, and LDP losses in the July 12 parliamentary election, prompted Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to resign. 'Torturous' Recovery To be sure, some investors remain skeptical that Japan's next head of government will be able to turn the economy around anytime soon. Such concern is likely to keep the yen from climbing too far too fast. ''I've got to wait and see,'' said Bob Murdock, who helps manage $1.2 billion at Analytic/TSA in Los Angeles. ''They've promised a lot of things down the years and they have yet to deliver on them.'' The dollar could rise as high as 160 yen by September as Japan's economy languishes, said J.P. Morgan's Patterson. ''Recovery will be a long and torturous process,'' said John McCarthy, manager of foreign exchange at ING Baring Capital Markets. ''Interest rates are at abysmally low levels and it hasn't helped at all that consumers aren't spending and businesses aren't investing.'' In a sign Japan is struggling to emerge from recession, a report this week showed industrial production fell in May from April, the fourth straight monthly decline. It also fell from the year-ago period, the seventh straight year-over-year drop. Currency traders will also take their cues this week from the semi-annual congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. The dollar could get a boost if Greenspan highlights recent signs that the U.S. economy is losing steam, reinforcing expectations that interest rates aren't headed higher and touching off gains in bonds. Global investors need the U.S. currency to pay for the bonds they purchase. German Trade The dollar could lose ground against the mark if the International Monetary Fund tomorrow disburses $5.6 billion in aid to Russia, setting investors at ease about Germany, Russia's largest lender and trading partner. The IMF and other international lenders last week pledged loans totaling $22.6 billion this year and next. Many traders had sold marks before last week amid concern that Russia may not be able to pay back debt and defend its currency. Signs that the worst of Russia's woes may be coming to an end helped take the dollar down 1.9 percent against the mark last week. The U.S. currency was quoted at 1.7803 marks Friday, from 1.7878 a day earlier. The mark's also seen getting a lift from signs that Germany's economic recovery is gathering steam. On Friday, a report showed the trade surplus widened to a record 14.6 billion marks ($8.2 billion) in May, suggesting exports to Europe are offsetting a slump in Asia. ''I like the mark versus the dollar,'' said Murdock of Analytic/TSA, adding that he recently bought marks. ''The trade figures and other recent reports showed strength.'' Still, the mark is likely to be held back amid expectations that German interest rates aren't headed higher anytime soon. Hans Boman, chief currency trader at Swedbank, bought dollars at 1.7875 marks Friday on expectations the dollar will gain. He also sold Swiss francs. A report due this week is expected to show German import prices fell 0.1 percent in June, reinforcing the benign inflation outlook.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14668)	7/19/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116764

George, could I give you some thoughts on the Kitco's tech. this is all based on market sentiment & greed. If a full 15% of today's grossly (IMHO) overvalued market went into the undervalued commodities. A certain % would flow into the metals. This could move gold to prior unforeseen heights. Has anyone checked out the market cap of the DIJA? If the average P/E for the DIJA is around 23, and it were to return to around even 14, where would all that money go? People will put it where there is a better that average chance of growth. Something that is currently undervalued - the commodities. IMHO rh