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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (23367)	7/20/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Proton	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 32384

Re: Science is not the Issue (Long and Dull, but On-Topic) If you are looking for a slowdown in deals or projects, then I think that you are in the wrong stock. I do not look for a slowdown in deals or projects from Ligand. I don't believe one can infer that from my previous messages (I'm quite allergic to straw-dog dander). Research expenses for Ligand are going to run into the billions of dollars. That's what you told the thread. I do not see the cash flow from current collaborations and the first products coming out of the vaunted Ligand pipeline to cover this. This means more collaborations. Since I am not a naif, I understand that this could mean more equity dilution. More collaborations do not mitigate the risk in holding the stock right now, they only increase the *potential* reward. As has been quite apparent for over a decade now, LGND's core IR technology goes right to the heart of the therapeutics industry No argument there: you have cogently and patiently explained this to us. My thesis is that the potential of the technology is already reflected in the stock price. Waiting for actualization of this potential may be a superior investment tactic than holding on to LGND for dear life. Now with the mimics on the STATs technology, LGND is poised to make advances at breakneck speed. "Breakneck speed" means something quite different a biotech stock than to, say, a software company (especially since there is no "Federal Code Administration"). I will grant you that the potential of STAT-mimics may not be reflected in the stock. I will further grant you that an event in this area (human-oriented research or a major collaboration) may create a significant "pop" in LGND. Given LGND's performance in the face of other "breakthroughs," (i.e. "looking at the past"), this is a weak investment case. Biotechs have done a horrible job lately in the clinical area, and the entire sector has been depressed. They have created a poor risk/reward ratio, and I suspect that some of the big boys have been pulling back, especially from the smaller Biotechs, which still have a bit to go before products come to market. EXACTLY! What's the charm in watching the best ballet dancer in Galveston? (Please, no "Don't mess with Texas" flames) LGND has failed, failed, failed, to distinguish itself from other devlopment-stage biotechs. That is why it shares their performance. I don't need to think LGND is worse than other biotechs in order to consider it an inferior investment. Pý p.s. In spite of appearances to the contrary, I am not here to bash LGND gratuitously. I would dearly enjoy concluding that this stock is The One. I would love to know of any stock that will be the big one (in advance). "SI" posters tend to present too many "false positives," alas. ;-) p.s. Have a great week and the last word: I'm out of here for the next few days. Perhaps the "Patience Gap" will drop in my absence. :-)