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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Gallaspy who wrote (1560)	7/20/1998 7:15:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Respond to of 3813

<<Novellus does not need anything from Semitool, what they need is etch and CMP and they got that all lined up.> NVLS made a bid for SMTL last year. I am not sure who else, but I know several other semi-equip players did as well. SMTL's Cu tool is superior in terms of performance, though I'm not sure how that matters when one competes against the giants. Nonetheless, just be sure before you plan SMTL's funeral, that you're sure they are dead. In this sector, small players do exist, and sometimes even do well. :~) They don't have AMAT's or NVLS's overhead, and likewise they don't have the big boys resources. That's why I believe they are in play. <<Semitool may have been first with Cu, but they will by 3rd fiddle behind Novellus and Applied 'cuz they are just too small to provide the entire set of tools, and they have not made the necessary alliances to go it alone or with one or two other companies.>> Mixing and matching may be the way some players may go. I am not sure if the total tool solution is the way industry will go. Having said that, I think there is a lot of logic to the total tool solution so long as one tool is not vastly superior to another. Have you examined SMTL's Cu tool? NVLS? <<AMD is in the Applied camp.>> Yes. I also believe, though may soon be proven wrong, that they are in the SMTL camp. Both AMD and MOTO have been long ti me SMTL supporters. I believe they are subscribers to the best tool approach, as opposed to the total tool solution. By the way, do you know what Cu tools AMAT has developed? Do you know if they have a electroplating tool? I may soon be proven wrong, but I beleive AMAT does not have an electroplating Cu tool which is where SMTL fits in. <<unless a miracle happens and Intel or some big Nihon firms announce they are going with Semitool, they are a distant 3rd.> A decent showing in third place in this market is nothing to sneeze at when looking at the relative size of the companies we are talking. I am not selling SMTL (though I own a chunk), but rather trying to put forth that this market isn't entirely sewn up....especially if SMTL is bought out...which I believe is on the horizon now that their founder and leading shareholder has given the CEO position to someone else. Management at SMTL has been the major obstacle to SMTL's success in many an analyst (and buyer's) eye...so this could be just what the doctor ordered. Just one man's spin....SemiBull