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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6320)	7/20/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 10921

Ramsey, My question is how many new fabs are planned today, assuming the semi industry will recover sooner or later? Further more, what is the projection for cap exp $$$ for these projects in the aggregate? That would probably be a question for Tom Kurlak, though I'm not sure I'd want him to answer it as he's been fickle sometimes. I don't have the answer in an aggregate sense, but from anecdotal evidence from individual companies, one would conclude that there has recently been a net reduction in planned new fabs due to Asia which would may help bring production in line with demand when demand perks up. It is my understanding, however, that there is a certain lead time in the semi equip industry of, say 6 months, in which companies must gear up to be ready, not only when demand turns around, but when new designs will be needed. As far as I know, this ramp up occurs whether or not current market conditions are bleak. Anyone out there have any ideas about how long this lead time is? Shouldn't it be kicking in about now?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6320)	7/21/1998 8:13:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

Bob Akins (Cymer's CEO) was on CNBC and had three interesting comments. 1) The current downturn is worse than prior downturns, and no end is in sight, 2) That Cymer (which right now seems to me to be in better short-term shape -- that is, more likely to get orders during the slump due to upgrades than most -- anticipates flat revenues for a couple of quarters and then "we'll see what happens"; 3) Cymer's book-to-bill is ".64". He did not mention the accounting period for this btb figure. The btb should come out today or tomorrow. I have a hunch it is going to be gruesome. Front end -- well, how could the litho people be selling product without Cymer? You have to think Cymer's orders are better than the stepper manufacturers, since Cymer can (and does) sell lasers without a stepper being sold, but vice-versa is rare. I'm guessing, obviously, but I'm starting to feel that there is more blood to be spilled, and soon.