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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (20865)	7/20/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

TO MY FRIENDS: Print out Yardeni's June 29 "Y2K Reporter". It gives recommendations for asset allocation. But print out & read the whole thing. yardeni.com If there are still people reading this thread who want to believe there is no big problem or global recession looming on the horizon. Just click past this post and don't bother reading Yardeni's June 29 Newsletter. Good luck to all, Cheryl

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (20865)	7/20/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 31646

Yardeni making the rounds, LA Times . . . . . Paul Revere or Chicken Little? Selling the Y2K Problem latimes.com latimes.com NEW YORK--Edward Yardeni sees it as a marketing problem: How do you sell an outlandish idea to people whose initial reactions range from boredom to irritation? Yardeni, chief economist and managing director of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, is the Paul Revere--some say Chicken Little--of the year 2000 computer problem. The Yale-educated economist is perhaps the leading proponent of the notion that the glitch--known as the millennium bug or just Y2K--may wreak havoc on the global economy. By Yardeni's most recent estimate, there is a 70% chance that Y2K will cause a worldwide recession as bad as the one sparked by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. That's up from his prediction of a 30% chance last summer, shortly after he began looking into the issue. Yardeni regards the expense of fixing the problem--$600 billion or more worldwide by some estimates--as a dead weight on the economy. He also fears a credit crunch when banks balk at lending to companies that seem vulnerable to Y2K woes. While agreeing that Y2K is an expensive, labor- and time-consuming problem, most experts think it will be solved. Few share Yardeni's fear that Y2K will pull under the global economy or snuff out a seven-year bull market. PaineWebber's chief strategist, Edward M. Kerschner, contends that not only is a recession unlikely, but that there may also be a Y2K dividend, when all the computer-upgrading activity "leads to greater information-processing capabilities and ultimately boosts productivity." Yardeni views the skepticism as simply a business problem. Continued - follow the link for the whole story