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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

The reason I mentioned telecom was because I told folks last week that I was moving out of FSESX in my IRA, and I got a few queries as to why (especially since it's an IRA). I went INTO telecom with some of the oil proceeds, and airlines (as a hedge for some other part of the oil funds) too. The reason was simple: Dead money is dead money whether it's IRA or personal. I took my loss on FSESX and moved it to a LT hot area and saved more downside on FSESX (which is lower than where I sold it). Just my strategy.... About RON, I don't know why the trigger happened, but it didn't help the stock. I wonder why such a vicious downswing (6%). Did other oil stocks take that big a fall today? Don't think so... Regards,

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 95453

>>Comments ? I saw nothing to trigger this type of a sell off, ie: CDG down $3 ! ...IMHO there wasn't anything out there to drive this type of a loss ?<< Interesting isn't it? The market just refuses to behave the way we might want. <H>

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FOCUS-Oil eases under stubborn pressure from glut LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - Glutted oil markets sagged under relentless pressure from bulging inventories on Monday despite fresh confirmation of output cuts by revenue-hit OPEC producers. International marker North Sea Brent crude was trading 10 cents down at $12.70 a barrel at 1602 GMT. Dealers detected some early support from news that some Gulf members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have reduced supplies in line with the cartel's production cut pledges. But the balance of market sentiment remains weak pending proof of prolonged compliance with OPEC production cuts agreed this year to drain bloated markets. The Middle East Economic Survey industry newsletter said on Monday that so far Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have notified term customers of cuts in crude liftings. ''The oil market is still waiting for clear signs of compliance before responding,'' said the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London. ''Even if compliance is exceptionally good, the buildup of stocks over the first half of the year has been so large that it will take the rest of the year just to reduce inventories to more manageable levels.'' A huge global stock surplus built up in the first half of this year has so far been preventing any price upturn. Market volume in London was thin. Downward momentum lingering from Friday's price falls tested support levels used by futures traders to probe market weakness. ''Clearly the market remains under some fundamental pressure despite early signs that the production cuts have started to influence certain physical markets,'' said Leslie Nicholas of GNI Energy research. ''However, OPEC has revised its 1998 world demand forecast down by 0.22 million bpd (barrels per day) to 74.42 million bpd which doesn't help.'' Traders said the markets would also be watching developments in major producer Nigeria, where military ruler General Abdulsalam Abubakar is expected to unveil a new plan to restore civilian rule after years of political turmoil in the oil-producing country. Prices are about $6.60 below last year's average price and over a dollar down since OPEC's deal in late June doubling its output cuts this year to 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd). Prices may win support from possible future problems with Iraq's ''oil-for-food'' sales programme after the United States on Thursday decided to block Iraq's latest official price submission, saying it was too low. But Iraq-related price pressure emerged again on Monday when shipping sources said Iraq had scheduled nearly 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude loadings for August, again topping supposed capacity limits. Iraq's provisional 1.78 million bpd August schedule is a little down from July's record 1.9 million bpd but still above Iraq's supposed capacity constraints of around 1.6 million bpd. The schedule apportions over 850,000 bpd of Kirkuk from the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and 930,000 of Basrah Light from Mina al-Bakr in the Gulf. Some have doubted that Iraq can keep up with such an intense schedule, especially at Mina al-Bakr where ships can have trouble getting in and out of the port. Prices in dollars per barrel: July 20 July 17 (1602 GMT) (close) IPE August Brent 12.70 12.80 NYMEX August light crude 13.75 13.98

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Is this just a simple averaging down mechanism at a pre-established trigger level? - If so; do we need a computer to do that for us? - if not please someone; explain the "AIM" system...thanks. The scope of what you are asking is beyond the space that would be tolerated on this thread. Please go over to: exchange2000.com and read about AIM and its methodology. It is not a simple "if it drops 10%, buy 10% more method." You might want to read some of my posts on that thread to see how the portfolio was initially conceived, constructed and the more general posts on how it operates. Go back to about July 5th where I start talking about using AIM in this regard. Basically, Big Dog recommended 5 stocks in the initial newsletter. I AIM'ed them to provide some sort of "unemotional" method for setting the buy and sell points and amounts. FGII had two buys last week as the stock collapsed. BTW, AIM isn't a computer, it's a spreadsheet. <ggg>

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

What triggered the sell-off? Oil prices. Absence of institutional buying. I thought last week was a bottom. Obviously I was wrong. Maybe there is no bottom. The oil price issue is playing out predictably, with the August contract tanking prior to expiration. As for institutions, nobody was brave enough to buy prior to the API numbers. Maybe S.A. will take it upon themselves to halt shipments for a couple of weeks to clear the storage glut. It's a pipe dream, but it sure would turn the tide for them.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider or anyone following CDG, Any reasonable explanation to justify today's sharp drop in CDG? I noticed that the bid was 23 5/8 and ask was 23 7/8 and then suddenly a block of over 100,000 shares went off on the NYSE at 23. Immediately the bid then dropped to 23 but the asked remained ar 23 7/8 for a while. I thought that possibly the specialist brought the price down in order to cross this trade. I can't understand why an institution would sell at such a loss unless they know something we don't but then another institution thought that buying this block was a good price so who really knows? I spoke with Cliffs last week and was told that they should hit their numbers and a share buy back was possible if the price remains low. I was also told that all 11 of their rigs in the Gulf of Mexico drill natural gas and not oil. I just can't understand why anyone would sell out at these prices unless they were margined. It is obvious that the price will eventually come back up so why would anyone take a large loss at this point in time???

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/20/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slide says..."nothing out there to trigger such a loss." What did oil prices do today? big

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26035)	7/21/1998 12:10:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, I was P. Messaged this: <<<Comments ? I saw nothing to trigger this type of a sell off, ie: CDG down $3 ! ...IMHO there wasn't anything out there to drive this type of a loss ?>>> I say this in the nicest way: "When you are ready to listen and not shout insults and sarcastic comments. Come and see me. We can all profit together thru the pooling of our knowledge!" I'll say it again as we are hitting new lows in the drillers. Here we are only 4 business days after the "bottom" was called by some and we are till moving lower in driller land. THIS IS NOT THE BOTTOM!! Not only does volume from that little 2 day rebound last week not indicate a capitulation, but there's still lots of bad news that hasn't come out yet on these stocks. Wait till mid-August to buy or at least a day or two of significant up-volume after an intraday rebound to indicate a bottom. If still holding... sell calls. IMHO Dog: What are you hearing in the patch? Send me a P. Message! -Lucretius