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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: William Wang who wrote (19424)7/20/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: IN_GOD_I_TRUST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 
You know you're right! But I got sick and tired of chasing stocks and thought COMS had alot of upside potential, where the others might not have as much room to move up. I was dead wrong!!!

Steve



To: William Wang who wrote (19424)7/21/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Will Hou  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 45548
 
Interesting group of people we've got here.

(and this posting gonna get longer and longer so you've been warned)

Me, an outsider, thinking to take a position in COMS, came back to this thread and started reading.. back from a few days ago. What do I see? Couple of really determined "investors" swearing the possibilities of a "pop" on Monday. Sure! Definitely! No doubt! Techie! Run dog run! (or is it forest?) And one even popped my eyes out with a price tag of $300 (I imagine that was USD) in 3 years. Then by the time Monday afternoon approached, the tune turned big time to "pathetic", "dead" and of course, the tired dog theory.

Some good pieces (in my view) I've seen are ones related to Pilot sales and questions on why this No.2 networking giant is not doing so good. The first one got answered pretty well, about 4% (or 6% if you want to be optimistic). I was curious on this as well because not only I am a proud owner of Pilot Pro and now III (upgraded), but also the various good things I've heard about it. The sales of PP have been spectacular to say the least and to be honest, I am a bit disappointed to see/learn that it only contributes to about 4% of revenue.

The No.2 question didn't get answered (or maybe I missed a few postings). It is also one of the questions in my mind and I hope I could get a good answer from here (come on! I know you hiding there waiting for the right moment to come out to share your views! IT IS TIME NOW!). Well, how about let me start here so you guys can flame me and burn me and hopefully in the mean time, we get some truth out of it?

It seems to me, that 3Com has defined itself to the lower end of the networking market, namely remote access/dialups, adaptors and carrier level. CSCO is dominate in higher end and fighting its way into voice and some claims that a big clash with LU is coming. We don't care about that. So, although listed as No.2, it is a shrinking No.2, with Intel making low end equipments and adaptors with lower pricing and other means of accessing/dialups coming into play, investors have doubts about the future of the company. We all heard about what happens to companies with bright futures, like CSCO DELL or even AMZN. We are seeing what happens to a company has uncertain future. It really gets to those on the Street if they can't see well. Thus few like this puppy that's been trying so hard.

COMS and USRX saw this coming and COMS bought USRX at a discount (for a reason we are seeing now). It's the right move, to me, but as always, merger times is turbulent times and it's gonna take a while for things to get going. That could partially explain the depressed stock price.

Looking longer term, I have questions that needs to be answered before I take any positions in this stock. According to research reports, COMS LT future growth is 25% (next 5 years), and the past 5 years it has a 20% growth rate. Are we at a turning point? If so, what's going to turn things around? Which area will propel the company to move strongly forward? Pilot? Cable modems? Buy-out by somebody (even Intel?)? The company is becoming a maker of commodity devices, and I do not see how that could help it going forward. Reducing cost and setup small companies to make your own chips or whatever can do nothing but short term treatment, I believe the company needs some serious operations. What do YOU think??

Please, enlighten me. I am all ears.

Thank you for your attention.

W.