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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11751)	7/20/1998 4:44:00 PM
From: Greg M.	Respond to of 18691

Roger, agree it may go higher, but it is high enough that I'm comfortable shorting. The retreat at the end of the day was very small. With earnings coming out, there will be a battle to push it higher tomorrow and continue the short squeeze, but I also believe a correction will happen in concert with earnings--and some big players may want to take their profits sooner than usual. I will continue to short whenever it looks like it's weak. There's not much downside risk IMO (as long as AMZN remains a small part of your portfolio). Monty

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11751)	7/20/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: Don Westermeyer	Respond to of 18691

Roger, After reading (and smiling) your post concerning the NASDAQ 2000 bug and the stocks in the 'program buy' list, I thought you'd like to see this: smartmoney.com In part: JULY 17: THIS MARKET'S FOR SIMPLETONS As summer's heat builds, so does Howard Schachter's frustration with the market. "I should just own Dell Computer (DELL), Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC) and Cisco Systems (CSCO)," snaps our exasperated growth maven. "There's no reason to own anything else. I mean, it just hasn't paid to use your brain. Dell, Microsoft -- anybody can own these stocks! These are the stocks that simpleton fund managers run. We [hedge-fund managers] are supposed to be into speciality situations -- in investments the world doesn't know about. But has it paid off? No. We're jerking around with interesting small- and midcap situations, but all the money is going into big-cap growth and nothing else." So if you can't beat them . . . well, he's not exactly loading up on any of the tech blue chips, but Schachter did purchase a large-cap growth company this week. For the details, see his portfolio page. Over in value land, strict disciplinarian Curt Jensen has decided that with just six weeks left in this yearlong investment derby, it's time for some drastic action. So he's blown out all his stocks in order to short the Malaysian ringgit and load up on Yahoo! (YHOO) options.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11751)	7/20/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, today's run up in CFON was brought to you because of this PR Newswire piece: biz.yahoo.com It's headline: "Merger Talks Begin" It is an advertisement for a hype web site. Of course CFON is not in merger talks. There is a list of equally high quality names in the release which also had the 'news' come up on a news by ticker search. I guess it's life on the big 'net. Barb

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11751)	7/20/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

For all those still shorting internet stocks, I'd load up on second tier internets as a hedge. NSCP from a value standpoint. Changing business strategy. EGRP and AMTD from a value/growth, positive earnings standpoint. NAVR and LEAP for pure momentum, just starting to turn profits. Since I've given up shorting internets I've almost doubled my portfolio in a month. I'm only buying the second tier/value plays. Internet mania won't end till more of these second tier company's get out of whack (may have started already with broadcast.com, but still early).

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11751)	7/21/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger Just read your original post =================================== Started By: +Roger A. Babb Date: Jan 1 1998 2:54AM ET The following are my short picks for 1998. I shorted each of these stocks on December 31, 1997 at very near the listed price and will hold each position until it reaches my target or fundamentals cause me to re-evaluate the position. AMZN 60 target 30 ATHM 26 target 15 CTXS 76 target 30 ETEC 46 target 30 VIAS 42 target 20 YHOO 70 target 35 Note that these shorts are hedged by a larger long portfolio of quality long term positions which helps neutralize big market moves in either direction. My "special situation" long pick for 1998 is: BROC 3 1/2 target 10 or better My initial market prediction for 1998 is bearish. I will be posting updates on my predictions to babb.com Happy New Year Roger ========================================= I hope you dont run your co. the way you predict the market else your cos. bank balance may be just as empty as your portfolio balance. ratan