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To: Electric who wrote (48129)	7/20/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: coug	Respond to of 58727

E, In 1926,Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist recognized the existance of long range economic cycles in the U.S, French and German economies which lasted from 50-55 years. There appeared to be a peak in commodity prices in 1814,1864, and 1920 followed by approximately 9 years later a crash in the markets.. When commodity prices were high in the mid 1970's, oil etc. a crash was expected in the mid 80's.. When this di not happen, the theory seemed to lose popularity. I still believe in long term business cycles because we are more productive on an individual basis than what we can each consume so every so often, we must work off excess inventories of everything ,food stuffs, energy, and manufactured goods including technology.. Although Kondratieff nailed it for the first threes cycles, I believe unforseen events, the tech revolution for instance, might stretch it out... maybe to Y2K, It's still valid I think.. Good luck and go Cougs and Mariners..........