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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: umbro who wrote (10919)	7/20/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Gary<Only two more days until earnings,> I know that you really mean #'s not earnings but I can't wait to them. What I expect to hear from the balloon is, good revenue growth domestically, Too early for European #'s but they are very bullish going forward. Due to EBITA accounting and getting books for stock the margins will be better and If, you will buy our stock for $1,000ps we will send you a free copy of one of our best sellers, its called 'The common man', written by Bateman.

To: umbro who wrote (10919)	7/21/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options report for 07/21/98 AMZN price: 132.063 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 111.04 OI = 5109 VOL = 3575 call price: 144.45 OI = 12532 VOL = 7626 consensus: 137.30 R = 0.4 R = 0.5 Options Forecast for: SEP put price: 104.50 OI = 90 VOL = 127 call price: 149.25 OI = 243 VOL = 28 consensus: 141.90 R = 0.4 R = 4.5 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 100.76 OI = 2357 VOL = 505 call price: 148.29 OI = 3763 VOL = 2318 consensus: 138.18 R = 0.6 R = 0.2 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 94.40 OI = 1662 VOL = 252 call price: 160.24 OI = 3011 VOL = 1353 consensus: 143.20 R = 0.6 R = 0.2 net long/short: 1.03 mil. i.v. for AUG = 1.012 i.v. for SEP = 0.995 i.v. for OCT = 0.941 i.v. for JAN = 0.793 Today's wicked downturn, and wide range has pumped some implied vol. into the Aug. options, and they're back to their old +100 levels. However, I'd expect the i.v. to quickly drop, post earnings announcment. My guess is that earnings is either a non-event (because everything positive is already in the price) or a slight upside surprise (as mentioned before, with analysts lowering expectations ahead of the announcement, it makes it easier to "surprise" to the upside). I'd be surprised if we see significant downside pressure until a week/so after announcement when the insiders and employees get their chance at profit-taking, but with AMZN who can tell? There are up to 6mil. shares that can be exercised by employees immediately per the March 10-Q. That doesn't include insiders, though my guess is they'll see it as politically incorrect to unload right now. I'd call the put/call ratios basically neutral here. As mentioned the call activity could be due to outright shorting, or simply worried bulls hedging their shares by selling some juicy call premium. My guess for tomorrow is a narrow range day, as the bulls and bears hold their breath ahead of the earnings announcement.