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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Quant who wrote (22015)	7/21/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Rick Mai	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Is the BTB out today?

To: Quant who wrote (22015)	7/21/1998 7:01:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

Quant: No offense intended, but is your firm long AMAT and, if so, will your firm be selling into this rally you anticipate? Did you attend SEMICON West or was your firm represented there?

To: Quant who wrote (22015)	7/21/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

What sent semiconductor equipment stocks skyward last cycle was AMAT saying that visibility had improved in relation to semiconductor industry recovery. They have made no such statement yet.

To: Quant who wrote (22015)	7/22/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 70976

>> IMHO Semicon West was a forum for industry to "guide down" earnings expectations (please reread my 7/17 post). The bar has been lowered to meet or exceed estimates in the next several quarters.<< If you would like for me to reread your 7/17 post, please provide a link to it. Finding a 4-day old post on a thread that gets 30 messages a day is somewhat difficult. As for meeting earnings expectations, the bar has been pushed so low that I'm sure companies will meet it. But the fact remains that Applied's valuation assumes 17% revenue growth (the long term average), while realistic forecasts predict flat revenues through at least the next year or so. >>Regardless of whether the semi recovery is in 1H '99 or 2H '99, CAPEX spending historically has accelerated six months in front of such a recovery my the chipmakers. << I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. My sources are predicting that CapEx won't recover until mid-1999. An additional dynamic coming into play here is that 300 mm and copper are coming, and no one wants to build the last 200 mm aluminum fab. So companies may be inclined to wait until 300 mm is ready, gaining capacity with yield improvements and shrinks until then. I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. Or, perhaps, agree that our perspectives are different. I'm a fairly long-horizon, value-based investor. For the long term, AMAT looks great anywhere below 40, but I think other stocks in the sector have even more potential upside. Katherine