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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: R Stevens who wrote (774)	7/21/1998 7:33:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 3339

I've been exiting since last week also. I was still selling some today. I have a first target of 1900 on the Nasdaq and 1150 on the S&P 500. As for Arch Crawford's call for a "crash" on the 24th plus or minus 1 or 2 days, he may be borrowing somewhat from the 9-month cycle between market bottoms. I had earlier expected a bottom in late July and another in mid-October to parallel the lows of last October and this January. I had been quite surprised that the market started rallying in June. I believe decisionpoint.com has a chart of the nine-month market cycle.

To: R Stevens who wrote (774)	7/21/1998 9:00:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

>>>What we still haven't seen in the US that we saw in Japan in the 80's, and we read about in the above quote, is inflation. It is interesting that the issue today with Greenspan was exactly that topic. And it makes sense that he is using inflation as a measure of whether or not we are becoming a true bubble.<<< RS, I believe we are going in the deflationery cycle as evidence by the CRB. I think we are beyond our inflationery peak in commodity and real estate prices which was in the 80's. What we are now in is the the final stage, the PAPER asset inflation, which is the final stage in the Kondrieteif cycle before the deflationery cycle. I believe that this cycle has been extended by several years by FED engineering and easing credit, which will be costly in the long run. I believe if you look at the global perspective the paper inflation in the US and Europe + the real estate inflation in Asia (especially Hong Kong which is 10x 1989 japan RE bubble) we have a worldwide asset bubble. The peaks are just hitting at slightly different times. I agree the increased # of posts on this thread means a short term buying opp, but very short term. bwdik, bb