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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaperChase who wrote (2114)	7/22/1998 3:43:00 AM
From: Kent Sarikaya	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2754

Chairman Greenspan spoke of this being the best economic conditions in the last 50 years that he has observed. It sure doesn't feel like it in technology. It's gotta get off the ground soon. I think I am seeing signs of it locally in 400 mhz pentiumII computers being bought. All of the upgraders, me included have maxed out our motherboards. Those that upgraded a year earlier than me are now buying new systems with the 400 pentiumII's. It requires a new motherboard and supports new graphic system AGP and new memory type SDRAM Dimms (8 nano sec) Usually what I see around my sphere usually shows up in a quarter or two in earnings. I'm sure this process is happening world wide. Would you believe a 16.8gig hard drive for <$500. Here is a system and all the new stuff my Nephew just ordered. Pentium II 400 mhz. The new case supports clip in drives. DVD player, 16.8 gig hard drive, Matrox G-200 8meg AGP video card, 128 megs Ram (SDRAM DIMM) 32x cd-rom, pci 64 soundcard. Till the G-200 video card comes in they are installing an intel i740 card. These video cards are incredible and the ram is super fast as well as the processor. Netscape 4.5 should load in less than a second to give you some idea. The change that is here is as, if not, more dramatic than the last change from 486 to pentiums. Why? because there are many more computer users now than there were back then. And the amount of new format hardware is just as dramatic. I forgot to mention the 100 mhz motherboard bus. The price is also now very reasonable and will be even more so in the coming year. Also all those people buying sub$1000 pc's and getting hooked on the technology are going to want to move up to the better machines. I also know a few people who have bought webtv systems and are hooked on e-mail and web surfing. All of them have mentioned now they want to buy a computer and do video conferencing and icq etc. This is all going to impact big in 1999 and I hope even start showing signs this last half of 1998, especially in the 4th quarter. How much longer can the money avoid these bargain basement priced gems ?

To: PaperChase who wrote (2114)	7/22/1998 11:11:00 AM
From: Joe Dancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

"Expect $6.50 soon cause the losses are going to be high over the next 6 months making book value a poor yardstick to assess value." I'm not as optimistic as you that we will see $6.50 - we are seeing prices now in microcap technology stocks that on valuation basis we may only see once a decade. This presents some real opportunities, if not in FSII elsewhere in the semi and equipment groups. Yeah, the Asia crisis is not over - so we may see lower valuations - but this industry has potential - Greenspan said that the Asian crisis was deeper and potentially more disruptive than most had anticipated, adding it was "difficult to state how crucial it is" that growth resumed in Japan and the region - scmp.com Meanwhile, Asian money continues to flow into this country which is finding its way into the market, supporting the large caps - washingtonpost.com A lot of the bad news around, which is a good time to buy in many cases if you can hold until the opinion changes. Best - Joe