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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6337)	7/22/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I don't follow equipment fundamentals that closely, because I don't invest in them for conflict of interest reasons. Still, I think NVLS is positioning themselves very well for the copper era, and I've heard good things about their technology. KLAC has pretty much a stranglehold on front end inspection and yield management, to such an extent that their yield consulting arm is a significant profit center, rather than just a freebie for customers. Advanced technologies will require big expenditures in this area. In the back end, KLIC and Electroglas are both interesting. KLIC because they should see things pick up before the front end guys--shrinks require more packaging and assembly, even when they don't require more wafer processing equipment. Electroglas because they are positioning themselves for a KLAC-like role in the back end. Overall, I'd look for companies that have good cash positions or diversified businesses that will let them keep investing through the downturn, as long as that takes. They'll be the ones positioned to ramp back up the most quickly, which means they'll have an advantage once chipmakers start buying again. My feeling is that chipmakers will delay major expenditures as long as they possibly can, so that when they do spend it will be for a 300 mm, Cu metal, megafab (probably costing $3 billion or so). Hope this helps. As always, caveat investor. Katherine