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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (11117)	7/22/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

The market is more out of control than most people think. One the one hand there are many companies that have good growth and expectations and whose stocks are ignored. On the other hand people are wildly throwing money at darling stocks while the analysts at the large brokerages are cheering enthusiastically. Greenspan commented on this. Some comments on his statements were to the effect "he doesn't really mean that . . . Greenspan is just trying to throw some caution into the picture to tone things down a bit . . . interest rates will head lower because commodity prices are low and will stay that way." I think we do have a strong economy but there are some serious underlying problems and a large divergence in where money is being channelled that is causing a systemic problem for future growth and economic health. Many companies that deserve to have easy access to capital through higher stock prices are not being rewarded while the money is squandered on risky high flyers that cannot possibly live up to expectations or use the money that is being thrown at them efficiently. It is just plain silly and will result will be disastor for many investors and a drain on the entire economy. I think Greenspan may raise interest rates if one or two things happen; 1] Asia starts pulling out so that it is less of a drain on overal growth, 2] gas and oil prices rise because of increased domestic demand and an evening out of demand in Asia. The new OPEC agreement may have some part in holding down supply. My guess is that oil prices have bottomed and an increase in summer travel, hot summer weather or a colder than normal winter would boost prices significnatly. A change in the trend of commodity prices would add to the tight labor shortage caused wage inflation and the irrational stock market action to boost inflation fears. Economists have been lulled into thinking that rates will stay down or trend even lower, and politicians add to the problem. It won't take much for Greenspan to raise rates come this fall/winter. Many analysts do too little independent thinking; falling into the trap of listening to company heads whose first job is to sell products and services and bolster company morale. Why do they expect to be told the whole story and not have to scratch their own heads to figure things out? With so little understood about the adolescent internet, brokerages have trusted the job of figuring out this mess into the hands of some analysts who are too easily awe struck. The poor individual who is at the mercy of their own greed and desire to participate in the run-up in inet stocks are more than willing to take any justification they can get. All I can say is that Greenspan should be given credit for having the guts to say it like it is - that analysts have speculated irresponsibly on non-existent profits and futures. The brokerages who should be the line of experienced reason have done little to bring things down to reality. Shame, shame shame . . . as the coffers fill with rich commissions and financial services moneys. I don't really expect the brokerages and analysts to tone things down until they see the end of the ride is near. Greed is their livelihood. Go Greenspan!!! (I was kidding about the "Green Meanie" characterization)