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To: Demosthenes who wrote (14982)	7/22/1998 2:03:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--There is an overcapacity in the DD arena and I see a consolidation in the number of TFH/MR/GMR producers down the road. I see APM and RDRT duking it out. I also see that even with the DD slowdown, the advanced drives are still being released. these are being made with UTEK equipment, most of which is latest generation. I am a very positive UTEK supporter but the following is my rationale for it being a laggard. 1. MEMS will be a blessing for UTEK but it is not taking off as fast as I expected. It is an emerging technology and UTEK will own that market much like it does for the DD sector. 2. UTEK has a long road to travel to get its 1X steppers mixed and matched into new 0.18u lines without the ISI stepper implementation. 3. UTEK needs to get market acceptance for the ISI stepper and build a customer base. 4. UTEK is coming to the end of the scanner replacement part of its business. It is still good but not as fantastic as in years past. 5. UTEK needs more Ultrabeams out in the market and will probably be burdened with further research costs to develop it into a droect write wafer system. 6. The industry downturn has probably delayed the P-GILD process and equipment out firther than they would like. 7. The rush to DUV will be via ASMLF, Nikon and Canon. I think the ISI will beat out the SVGI Micrascan. However, both the ISI and SVGI systems road to success may start as being the only available alternative as the rush to DUV creates horrendous cycle times. this will give them the shot they deserve but it does come after the majors fill up their salesbooks. 8. SEA was supposed to be a fertile ground for UTEK but it will be awhile before things turn around there. And when it does, I do not think UTEK will be first on the list of equipment purchases. No more rambling and do not take anything here as negative. It is still my opinion that UTEK will enjpy a healthy recovery but it will be offset from the "main pack". Andrew