Hi Barry, Article...Inside Multimedia PCs -- This year's innovations, including DVD, will appear first in more expensive PCs.
July 22, 1998
ELECTRONIC BUYERS NEWS: While PC makers continue to pack increasingly sophisticated features into sub-$1,000 systems, the most compelling technical developments in the coming year will be in mid- to upper-range PCs.
The most dynamic segment is still the largest. A greater number of systems costing more than $1,000 will be sold this year than will machines priced below $1,000, analysts said.
NEC Corp. and others are introducing $1,499- to $1,699-systems with MPEG-2-based DVD, which analysts say may be the most important technology to affect PC offerings in the next year. Product planners at these companies are also looking to add new audio, improved video, and V.90 56-Kbit/s modems.
Most new midrange systems are expected to come with 350- or 400-MHz Pentium II processors, hard disks with capacities of up to 9 Gbytes, PCI-based 3D video controllers with 4 Mbytes of memory, PCI-based audio, and 64 Mbytes of SDRAM.
A few companies are boldly swimming against the tide with a new class of hybrid multimedia computers. Designed around high-performance processors from Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the new systems are expected to hit retailers' shelves and direct marketers' Web pages later this summer.
The first of these machines may be Compaq Computer Corp.'s Presario 5600. Hewlett-Packard Co. is launching a similar system, sources said.
DVD developments
Massive cash outlays by Hollywood, coupled with the efforts of savvy PC makers learning how to market the new technology, are fueling consumer interest in computers equipped with DVD ROM drives.
"DVD turns today's multimedia computer into a consumer-electronics device, " said Martin Reynolds, an analyst at Dataquest Inc., San Jose. "The problem with today's DVD solution [which includes a hardware-based MPEG-2 add-in card] is that it's costly."
Systems equipped today with DVD-ROM drives and hardware-based MPEG-2 decoding carry adder costs of up to $200, he said. But although PC makers have not yet introduced a DVD-ROM-equipped machine that includes hardware-based MPEG-2 for less than $1,000, the price of DVD ROM-equipped systems will fall, according to Reynolds.
Moreover, Intel's new 333-MHz or faster Pentium IIs may have the brute horsepower needed to eliminate the requirement for MPEG-2 hardware altogether, he said. "The availability and wide acceptance of high-speed Pentium IIs means that by the end of this year, many PCs will be able to play DVD titles without special hardware."
A handful of companies are looking at PCs that include much of the functionality of machines like the $3,000-plus Compaq Presario, but which are at the opposite end of the price spectrum. For example, Tiger Direct Inc., Miami, a direct marketer, has a DVD ROM-equiped PC for less than $1,000.
And there's no shortage of companies pushing their own reference designs. Cirrus Logic Inc., Fremont, Calif., is circulating two versions of a specification for its MediaMax platform. One, the MediaMax EC-II, calls for a DVD ROM drive, AGP graphics, 3D positional audio, a 2.1-Gbyte hard drive, a V.90 modem, a 233-MHz IBM 6x86MX processor, 32 Mbytes of memory, and a keyboard and mouse. This configuration is targeted at systems at the $799 price point.
Others have recently experimented with similar designs that blend the functionality of consumer-electronics devices with the PC. Micron Electronics Inc., Nampa, Idaho, last year developed and later axed the Fusion PC, which, like the Cirrus MediaMax design, was to have included a DVD ROM drive, a midrange processor, 32 Mbytes of memory, and a small hard disk. Micron decided for strategic reasons not to pursue the technology further.
Although Cirrus has yet to find a partner for its MediaMax, it hasn't given up. Asian PC makers are reportedly developing machines that conform to this specification. These systems are due to appear before year's end.
MPEG-2's impact
Video-controller technology has reached a plateau in recent years, according to Dataquest's Reynolds and a handful of PC designers. Analysts note that today's winners tend to use 3D controllers and accelerators from companies such as ATI Technologies, Diamond Multimedia, and NVidia, and differentiate their machines by the amount of video memory jammed onto the motherboard or controller cards.
"3D is now assumed," Reynolds said. "What PC makers should expect in the future are controllers that are not only faster, but also cheaper."
MPEG-2 and other technologies could enable PC makers to leap over the current plateau. Analysts and PC designers believe that although Intel-supplied MPEG software running on high-speed Pentium IIs may solve one problem, hardware-based MPEG solutions such as those from Chromatic Research, C-Cube Microsystems, and others will provide a short-term solution in the coming year as the market begins to integrate high-definition television (HDTV) with PC technology.
"The circuitry for MPEG-2 signal decompression and compression is very similar to what's needed to convert HDTV for display on normal-sized television screens [and some computer monitors]," Reynolds said "We think much of today's MPEG-2 technology can be adapted to current and future multimedia computers or consumer-electronics de-vices, where it can be used as the basis of entertainment PCs."
Microsoft Corp. chief Bill Gates suggests that a year from now, today's top-of-the-line $3,500 multimedia system could be a single device that replaces many home-entertainment systems, including videocassette recorders, stereo systems, and game consoles. The technologies that could be at the heart of that transformation, according to Gates, are next-generation recordable DVD drives, digital cameras, and at-home high-speed Internet connections.
Audio advances
In the next 12 months, most vendors of audio subsystems are expected to refresh product lines with new chips and cards that improve the user's experience, producing five channels of sound and then turning that signal into a two-speaker virtualization. Companies such as Creative Labs, Diamond Multimedia, and Turtle Beach may soon find renewed competition and OEM interest for PCI-based products that support Microsoft's DirectX APIs, which will be used in desktop multimedia systems in games or home-theater applications.
PC makers are beginning to pay less attention to the decade-old Sound Blaster standard and are looking instead for chip-based solutions for sub-$1,000 machines and PCI-based products for more expensive multimedia computers, said Dave Crowell, a product manager at Cirrus Logic's Crystal Multimedia division in Richardson, Texas. "What PC makers say they want is high quality at a low adder cost."
Analysts and PC designers expect AMD, Intel, National Semiconductor Corp.'s Cyrix subsidiary, and other players to offer solutions to help them compete at discrete price points. But Intel's hegemony in the multimedia-computer market is hard to beat. The company holds more than an 80% market share and has segmented its Pentium II line into three families: Celeron, Pentium II, and Pentium II Xeon. AMD may be Intel's closest competitor, with its K6 family.
But AMD, Cyrix, and Integrated Device Technology Inc. are working on a standard of their own (see sidebar this page) that, along with a new Intel-designed motherboard, eliminates the need for a separate video controller or card, and is likely to show up this year in PCs that cost less than $1,000.
Two other processor-related technologies have either already arrived or are on the horizon. The first is AMD's K6-2 with the 3DNow! enhancement to the x86 instruction set. This is designed to break through 3D-processing bottlenecks and is rapidly gaining support among game developers. At Microsoft, programmers are working with AMD to develop consumer programs and DirectX 6.0 APIs that support AMD's new multimedia extensions.
The second technology is Katmai, Intel's second-generation MMX family (expected to be released in the first quarter of 1999). In addition to better floating-point support, Katmai chips are expected to include features that speed up video and other types of streaming data, making it possible for PC makers to offer systems that fully support digital-imaging applications and peripherals.
Batting for sub-$1,000
Some analysts predict that in less than a year, yesterday's multimedia computer could cost less than $700. Such systems, analysts speculate, could include a 6-Gbyte hard drive; a few expansion slots; a 3D video controller placed on the motherboard with 2 Mbytes of memory; a Pentium II or a roughly equivalent processor from AMD, Cyrix, or IDT; a CD-ROM drive; speakers; and 32 Mbytes of SDRAM.
The significance of the sub-$1,000 category should not be underestimated, according to Dataquest's Reynolds. Virtually all of today's players have machines in this category, and not to participate in this space is "to risk going out of business," he said.
This year, most analysts expect that up to 40% of the PC market, or slightly more than 30 million systems, will be sold for less than $1,000.
Overall, Dataquest predicts that about 161 million desktop and desk-side multimedia computers will be produced this year and next. The research firm also reports that this market segment should grow at a compound annual rate of 15.2%, in contrast to 20% yearly expansion in the recent past.
-Jim Forbes is a senior technology editor at Windows Magazine.
Look for PC makers to be pushed next year into shotgun marriages with new technologies, including:
- Processors such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s K6-2 with 3DNow! and reduced-cost versions of Intel Corp.'s Pentium line. Also, Intel's Katmai second-generation MMX technology may appeal to manufacturers of high-end multimedia computers, since it could influence basic configurations.
- PCI-based audio technologies with support for 3D positional sound.
- 3D graphics controllers, which will be designed to speed up and enhance games and other applications, including a new generation of Web pages that use 3D graphics.
- DVD-ROM drives, which, while still new, could end up being used in as many as 30% of all new PCs sold this year and 80% of all PCs sold in 1999. Intel is expected to push MPEG software algorithms as a way to eliminate costly hardware-based MPEG chips and card-level products in multimedia computers using 333-MHz or faster versions of its Pentium II.
- Integrated networking adapters are also catching on, particularly in high-end multimedia computers marketed to upscale buyers who want to surf the Internet from their homes using cable modems.
- IEEE 1394 is emerging. Thus far, only Compaq Computer Corp. and Sony Corp. are building systems that support this high-speed serial interface; however, other PC makers are expected to sign on later this year.
- Integrated V.90-compatible 56-Kbit/s modems are quickly becoming check-box items in all segments of the consumer market.
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interesting...
Michael |
