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Technology Stocks : OBJECT DESIGN Inc.: Bargain of the year!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (2171)	7/22/1998 6:56:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3194

(Bl)ah(bl)ah(bl)ha, You wrote the following nonsense: VSNT is ODIS' shadow. It represents the market. ODIS has pursued a protected strategy that keeps the institutions off their backs. That strategy is oriented around operations that tend to distribute revenues evenly over time. VSNT goes for the big deal although as you can read, the company is trying to put together many little ones now. It's a hold if ODIS is, but I believe they will both be breaking down back into their bases. VSNT's ODIS' shadow... OK, let's agree on that --as far as marketshare/revenue is concerned. But then you say it represents the market... what do you mean? That VSNT's outlook is mirroring the whole ODBMS market's outlook? Anyway, you forgot to put a key character in the picture: Computer Associates. So, forget about VSNT when assessing the ODBMS market: with CA and ODIS we've likely 80% of the overall ODBMS market. You say VSNT's running after the ''big deal''... Do you mean a ''HOODINI Deal''? Or a ''Hong Kong Telecom/Interactive TV deal''... or an ''Ericsson deal''? All these were deals concluded in the last 10 months that went into ODIS' bag. The fact is that ODIS has invited itself to all the parties: big deals, small deals, medium deals, and mega-deals (after all, HOODINI's total bill was $48M!). The outlook for ODBMSs would have been ugly if it was the other way around, ie an exhausted market leader (ODIS) struggling to keep a flat revenue stream and a challenger (VSNT) enjoying a double-digit growth rate... (Actually, if you remember, that was last year's story! VSNT was enjoying a much stronger growth rate than ODIS's) Because in such a scenario, the challenger's growth always ends up coinciding with the overall market's intrinsic growth. But we don't face such a scenario: the ODBMS market is expanding at an annual 40% rate; yet, almost all of this growth comes out of ODIS (anyone knows the Jasmine numbers?) Hence, it's a classical winner-takes-all scenario. The same happened in the browser business: there were Nestcape, Netmanage's Chameleon, IE, etc... Tomorrow we'll be left with IE (70%) and Netscape (30%). Thanks for your XML article, Gustave.