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Technology Stocks : Computer Associates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Danny Chan who wrote (2654)	7/22/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 5232

I would discount even further given a predictable lack of positive sentiment around the stock, further devaluation in line with the market's next moves down, and of course the "twins" effect.... 29 might ultimately be an entry point intra day..... depending on market volatility in any given moment......... however.......bad news here may become still worse if CA was conservative in their negative estimates re: asia growth and more importantly.... redistribution of IT budgets not to mention IT budget cuts (capex spending) as corporations generally face falling margins, increasing lack of price flexibility, lower production/higher cap equipment costs, wage pressures/rising medical costs....and perhaps a turn around in oil/energy prices to the upside.....affecting shipping and other related product to market costs..... Joel

To: Danny Chan who wrote (2654)	7/22/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: The Rancher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5232

ca's business is fundamentally flawed. the european shortfall was a fixable, company specific event. the company was bound to come back, and thus that shortfall was a good time to get in. this time, its a market demand issue with respect to ca's licensing structure. ca must fundamentally change their business, not just fix a short-term problem. this is why the 12/96 shortfall was a buying opportunity, while this one is a time to sell. ca must show how they can change the ENTIRE BUSINESS MODEL in order to get the stock moving. bottom line, trading on multiples at this point could be meaningless with no definitive time horizon for a recovery. it's also interesting to note that in 12/96, some brokers kept buy ratings on the stock, reflecting the fact that it would come back over the short and long term. this time, downgrades across the board with no indications of when the stock will come back. i have always been a believer in ca, but this is pretty bad news. woefully, -a poor rancher