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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (11904)	7/22/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: put2rich	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho, or in another way you can short the hell out of any but stop loss of 1% and get out. Your style is long term and if a big error then it is bad. Tell you I try to avoid all major mistakes (easy said than done) to rebuild my tattered acc. Good luck If you have time during summer you should try some daytrade. For me little tired of stock but just hang on and be extremely careful.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (11904)	7/22/1998 8:24:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Respond to of 18691

Good evening Pancho and All, Alan Greenspan has once again pulled the market's chain, and it acted according to his plan. His successful jawboning techniques, which intersperse long, droning, answers punctuated with buzz words and phrases, to uneconomically-educated senators and representatives, puts him at a decided advantage over these media-interested sucklings. This fight ain't fair. AG can move markets in a big way, and he's intelligent enough to know this fact. His carefully-chosen verbiage, serves as an alternative to playing with the nation's interest rates, and that course of action seems to have the blessings of the majority of the Fed governors as well for the time being. The markets will now concern themselves with the election of the new Japanese Prime Minister. "Japanese news reports that Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi has emerged as a leader in the race put further pressure on the yen. Obuchi is seen as a less reform-minded politician than his chief rival, Seiroku Kajiyama, Tokyo's ex-chief cabinet secretary." cnnfn.com The "Asian flu" has not gone away, and it's effects on the U. S. economy will now most-likely not be fully felt until the 3rd or 4th quarter, IMO. The US balance of trade numbers over the balance of the year should prove interesting reading. This liquidity-driven bull market should continue to thrive over the near term however, as the Nifty 50, Nifty 100, or Nifty whatever continue to attract their share of these new market monies. We are in a stock picker's market, and all we have to do is "pick" the the right ones. MT

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (11904)	7/22/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Dr. Pancho, Your analysis on AMZN is excellent and while I believe that YHOO! is still an undervalued company in my criteria, AMZN is definitely overvalued. One of the things that really prevent me from shorting this issue is that after watching the trading on AMZN for a day, I was shocked to see that 1 k shares of this puppy can move the price up or down more than 1 point! That's absolutely ridiculous and also indicated that any AMZN MM has the ability to initiate a short squeeze if the time is ripe. Basically we all agree that it's the short's activity that has driven AMZN this far. Without the significant contribution from the shorters, this puppy should be traded at 15-30. I made it clear months ago that AMZN will totally crash the day when it sees an 80%+ drop in its short interest. Shorting great companies like MSFT, DELL, LU, CSCO is a total disaster in this ridiculously strong bull market. Those issues are everyone's favorite, with strong growth in revenues and EPS, total domination of their respective markets. And more important, they always exceed earnings expectation! DELL has beat first call by 18 straight quarters. I can't remember lsat time that Mr. Sofite missed the first call, and LU always beats first call by double digits. This alone deserves another 20 PE multiple in current market situation. People always pour money into those stocks that they know they don't need to worry about missing quarters... We have seen what a penny can do to a great company (IBM and MRK). Recently I talked to a fund manager who is outperforming the S&P 500 by a wild margin. His portfolio is simple: Softie, DELL, AOL, LU, and CSCO. He is considering buying some YHOO! in the near future. He said that his job is extremely simple. All he needs to do is to buy these issues on dips and forget about anything else. And he is almost gauranteed to outperform nearly every fund manager in the world. Among these issues, he believes that AOL and DELL are most overvalued, but he knows how many hedge fund managers get burnt in the past shorting those two puppies. And honestly we don't see the situation to change in the near future. So maybe the bull market will suddenly stop when all bears are smart enough to stick totally with crappy and trashy issues. I will put the market when that happens. Otherwise, we are going to see a dip here and there only to be reversed in a hurry and the market makes new highs. And I will strongly suggest that no one on this board short DELL right now. I am more than certain that they are having a blockbuster quarter and the shorters will get burnt big time. I was not sure until very recently about this. Save your $ for later usage. larry!

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (11904)	7/22/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Good Evening Pancho, Long time no talk. The list of countries slowly sliding into recession/depression gets longer and longer as the market shrugs off all negative news. These are my calls for the next 18 months. What Y2K will be like is an unknown at this time. However, the fact that 50% of Americans believe in UFO's or that Jerry Springer is the #1 rated talk show makes me think there might be more trouble than what's been voiced here in this forum. Gone: Indonesia - 50% unemployment, 80 million thrown into poverty Going in 3-6months South Korea - labor strikes, $ 450B in corporate debt. Russia - experiment in Capitalism almost over here come the reds here comes financial panic in Western Europe (Germany). Brazil - Goodbye Russia, goodbye Brazil. Venezuela - The longer oil stays under $ 16, the faster the collapse. Going in 6 - 12months Mexico - Oil, oil, oil. Canada - O Canada. Cda $ is $ .67 US economy is slowing govts got to raise rates. Australia - Asia going, commodities deflating, $ collapsing. New Zealand - See Australia above. China - we will not devalue, we will not devalue.....not. Japan - How much bleeding can one country take. South Africa - Commodities deflating. Goodbye South Africa, hello anarchy. I didn't include all those other Asian countires such as Thailand, Malaysia, Phillipines etc. We may also see some trouble in Great Britan as rates rise and economy slows and with OPEC countries. The clock is ticking and the Tsunami is coming. Russian business says IMF is irresponsible biz.yahoo.com Japanese dumping foreign assets biz.yahoo.com Japan's economy declines in all sectors satellite.nikkei.co.jp 80 Million Indonesians cant afford to feed themselves iht.com Greenspan gloomy on Asia dailynews.yahoo.com Some analyst detect slowdown in US economy latimes.com