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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Rowton who wrote (11908)	7/23/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: BDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Re: UNH Besides the option activity what else leads you to believe this is a good short? After the meltdown at FPAM I have begun looking at this sector to see if there are any other short candidates. UNH is big and growing. Do you see the Humana merger as a plus if it goes through? The merger is being opposed in Illinois where it will give UNH a 90% market share in Chicago. I thought it was interesting that the Illinois Hospital Assoc., opposing the merger, said that UNH had the highest rates of patient complaints and complaints of late payments to doctors and hospitals. Of course, in a normal business pissing off your clients and suppliers would be bad management, but in this business it is thought to be savvy management. Do you think the complaints reflect a deteriorating financial situation? FHS looks weak. Only got its bond rating back a few months ago. BBB by Standard & Poor at the time. Is it getting stronger? Thanks for any help. I would like nothing better than to make money off of managed care by shorting some of the players. Mustn't let myself get emotional about this.(g)