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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (4961)	7/22/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: John Metcalf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Aww, shucks, Peter. I appreciate your work, and Rick's, and Vector1's and the other Peter S (uzman). But you left out Margie, who has dug out and posted a ton of research for us. That said.... there is an obvious lag between the discovery of value and the market's recognition of it. Market valuations can be many years behind clear signals. When Rick Harmon first mentioned Agouron (that I know about) on M.I.S., it was selling for $5.50 per share, split adjusted. By the time Alan Abelson gets it, and tells everybody else, I'll be retired -:) As to this spin-out, what good is it to shareholders, and why does it need a prospectus, if there is not a secondary market? And, if there is a secondary market, it will sell shares sooner or later. We can all be flippers then -:)

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (4961)	7/23/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Peter, While I'm flattered to be included in such illustrious company, there are lots of people who contribute to this thread (like Margie) that know an awful lot more about AGPH and its prospects than me. Currently, I have a very small AGPH long position acquired very recently. My reasoning is that I think there is a reasonable chance that it will be acquired (maybe in a 51%-49% deal), because even at a substantial premium the acquisition would be accretive. Further given the current short position, even some credible rumors might be enough to send the shorts scrambling. The interaction between the short position and a spin-off might also produce some upwards momentum. On a fundamental basis, AGPH is trading at around 2x current revenues. Part of this is accounted for by the JT royalty, and another part is because the street just will not give Viracept earnings a decent multiple, because of doubts about its longevity. This is something I have always maintained - if you look way back on the thread you will see me being attacked by John (remember him?) when I agreed with David S. (remember him?) on this issue. This is something a spin-off won't remedy, and only a few years will tell if the street is right or not. A spin-off will certainly make AGPH look very cheap on a pure numbers basis, as the earnings hit from the oncology research goes away, and some part of the existing stock price also goes away to re-appear in the oncology tracking stock. So from a p-e perspective there is a double whammy. Whether anyone will care or not is unclear, and certainly there will be some "smoke and mirrors" accusations. On balance I guess I think a spin-off is a good idea in this context. Short or medium term it may well help, although I think it probably hurts in the long term because of the increased complexity. Peter