Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : General Magic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seconds Out who wrote (2891)	7/23/1998 3:03:00 AM
From: Darla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10081

In the previous points, all I did was try to point out the that you can't pick a handful of optimistic assumptions and hit them all. Like 400K subscribers for 20M in marketing. Pick one, and compute the other. I agree that Amazon and Etrade are different -- I didn't draw that wide comparison someone else did so I applied their metrics. Again, simply to deflate the FUD factor. As for competition, I think while Portico is a new service it does have competition - voicemail. And voice mail is evolving to include unified messaging, web access etc from a number of companies with a lot more experience than GMGC. These folks also supply the carriers, who 10 out of 10 times will choose facilities over services (I think that's why no carrier announcements have been made - traditional ESP players are fortressing carriers) I also think that Portico will need a lot of advertising support to fully and completely deliver the consumer value proposition. It's an expensive service -- users that place all their wireless calls thru Portico will triple their spending. You also have issues with respect to direct credit card billing, behavior changes, churn management -- all these things are marketing issues and cost a lot. I'm certain a surge of early adopters will appear, then a slowdown and probably a 30% churn(typical for enhanced services). I might sound a little negative - I am. I've been in this game for 20 years and I've seen how hard it is to get consumers, retailers and carriers to understand the obvious. If GMGC outlined their strategy and business model, I might be more comfortable as an investor. That's all for tonight.