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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (11422)	7/22/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: Sonny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Any Psychologist, Chartist and Option-evaluator here? Please comment on the following 3 points/questions: 1. Can the euphoria still continue in masses after some significant event like earnings announcement? If so, then extrapolating 45-days' of pre-release run, how many days you suspect. Will give us some sentiment-topping-out signal. 2. Chartist: From the last 3 months, and last 2-weeks' charts, can you give us some guidance on where the waxing-and-vaning of the turbulence of the price-wave will subside for AMZN? Will give us some criterion to observe the drop in option-volatility premium. 3. Option-evaluator: Can you please comment on the rate with which the price of AMZN must drop, so as to achieve some 50% gains in puts (deep-out-of-money, say 90) expiring somewhere around Jan'99 (for maximum hold upto Oct'98). Someone mentioned that MMs have placed puts so high that the decrease in price will be compensated by decrease in volatility premium, so much so that, if the price deceleration line does not have -ve slope higher than certain value, it will be just mildly -ve, with no hopes of any gains whatsoever. Want some confirmations on that. regards to all, -/Sonny.

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (11422)	7/23/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I think the "shallow" media "experts" may just look at the one good number that was reported and gloss over all remaining issues. Hard to tell. If expectations were built up for much higher sales and lower losses - I saw guesses of sales over $175 million and a profit (can you believe?) of a few cents. Amazon came in about where I thought they would for sales and earnings. The 33c loss number masks some of the acquisition costs and thus is over stated. The GAAP loss of 44c is a more reasonable figure because there is no guarantee that intangeable assets can be retrieved or that growing loses won't force new rounds of debt or equity financing. It's like saying "we lost less but went deeper into debt doing it". In the final analysis, the cost to grow the company did not beat expectations and the future growth is less assured simply because the market has become more savvy about the particulars of this thing called internet commerce. It's important that you don't get me wrong. There is a lot I like about Amazon.com; I like their character and spirit and the fact that they had the balls (or ovaries) to see a market opportunity before it became clear to the guy at the hot dog stand on the corner -(every analyst on Wall Street and editor who had prior handled the garden column can now claim to be an e-commerce expert). These people are sincere pioneers who deserve more credit than most brokers, analysts, and investors ever will. Of course, it probably took a bit of luck along the way too. This stock needs to get rational whether you are a bull or a bear. The company will benefit most by having a stable market for its stock that is based on at least somewhat reasonable expectations. I do not think that Amazon.com is doomed to go out of business as some on this thread have suggested. That makes little more sense to me than the wild speculation that has driven the stock to unsustainable levels. Pure bull and short bullshit. What we know about the company now is that they are a leader in the emerging e-tailer field with a definable brand placement that is targeted toward books, music and eventually video marketing. They may find some success in brancing out into a few other related areas but will have their hands pretty full for the next 3-5 years in carving out these niches, making them profitable and protecting them from competition enough to eventually make a fair profit. That alone will take a very focused and dedicated effort. I certainly would not want to be in Amazon.com management's shoes with investors and a few careless analysts now expecting huge returns and for them to strike out into many diverse product areas while they are still trying to make a profit on their core enterprises. What pressure they are under. Management at Amazon.com has gotten pretty real about their expectations and investors should also. They will be around for a while, but won't shoot to the moon and won't go under. The one area I seem to differ, although Bezo would not elaborate much on his thoughts, is in the area of price competition (price elasticity of sales). It can be expected that most internet e-commerce start-ups will be highly focused on near term issues with an over-riding emphasis on sales growth (isn't that what the internet is primarily all about?). What very few have looked into or studied as I have, (want to see my biz plan? - non-disclosure required), is what can be expected for price competition through currently available and evolving search and Shop Bot web agent capabilities. "Intelligent web agents" is a still emerging field with only relatively crude tools or software features that are availble to web developers or users at this point. But it is mushrooming rapidly as a field of behind the scenes development. Underlying internet standards are quickly evolving to enable standard interface and data exchange mechanisms. And the technology takes advantage of fields, such as fuzzy logic and "expert systems" type decision engines (artificial intelligence? I don't think so for a few decades). This stuff is HOT! with money posibilities - (My blood starts boiling, I need to get up and grab some lemonade, when I think of how I should get my own plans into action to take advantage of this field for e-commerce rather than fool around on SI). . . . . . Bleep . . . thoughts turning incoherent . . . bleep . . . break time . .