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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (6352)	7/23/1998 5:11:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

BTB is out: 0.74 More importantly, bookings $911 M Both figures are 3 mo. averages. The $173 M drop in bookings, is the biggest yet this year. Backing out of the 3 month averaging, June orders were $520 M less than March orders. I estimate June orders were down ~ 45% from March, without the 3 month averaging. That's quite a drop. No wonder everybody is laying off. Re. the BTB, it's not as low as at the bottom of 1996. See chart at geocities.com (BTW, who makes this nice chart, anyway?) Here's the news release: North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts June 1998 Book- to-Bill Ratio of 0.74 MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 22, 1998--The North American semiconductor equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.74 for June 1998, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.74 means $74 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped. Three-month average shipments in June 1998 were $1.2 billion. The figure is nine percent below the May 1998 level, and is about even with the June 1997 level. Three-month average bookings decreased in June 1998 to $911 million. The bookings figure is 16 percent below the May 1998 level, and 32 percent below the June 1997 level. "Contrary to everyone's hopes, May 1998 was not the bottom of the downturn cycle, although shipments were essentially equal to those of a year ago," said Dick Greene, principal analyst with SEMI. "The continued decline in orders and shipments seems to echo much of the industry news reported last week during SEMICON West." The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. -0- T Month Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill January 98 1,458.0 1,363.6 0.94 February 98 1,369.1 1,233.5 0.90 March 98 1,370.3 1,123.1 0.82 April 98 (final) 1,416.3 1,102.1 0.78 May 98 (revised) 1,347.4 1,084.9 0.81 June 98 (preliminary) 1,225.8 911.4 0.74 T -0- The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data. The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks shipments and orders for equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the chips themselves. Based in Mountain View, SEMI is an international trade association serving more than 2,200 companies participating in the $65 billion semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. Visit SEMI OnLine at www.semi.org.

To: Q. who wrote (6352)	7/23/1998 7:04:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Respond to of 10921

<<Of course, mgmt. statements should not always be taken at face value, but I don't see any evidence in the recent offerings that NVLS didn't take IBM away from SMTL.>> From my understanding, 'Tool may get something out of the IBM "deal." <<Judging from the various news releases, I would guess that IBM has done quite a lot of research, in head to head comparisons of the two, in deciding which is the better plating tool.>> I suggest you find someone who has tested both tools before coming to this conclusion. I believe you will find after doing the abnalysis yourself or speaking to someone who has, you will not hold the same opinion. SemiBull

To: Q. who wrote (6352)	7/23/1998 9:13:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 10921

>> In the NVLS conf. call, Rick Hill was asked what competition he faces in copper. He first discussed AMAT, which to me suggests this is what he is most mindful of for the future. Then he mentioned SMTL, where he said that NVLS had won account(s) away from SMTL, citing differences in the product offering.<< AMAT is already NVLS' biggest competitor in all areas except copper fill. I'd be surprised if he didn't mention them first, regardless of their competitive position (or lack of it) on copper fill. >>Judging from the various news releases, I would guess that IBM has done quite a lot of research, in head to head comparisons of the two, in deciding which is the better plating tool.<< Funny, I read the same news releases, and I don't get that impression at all. It looks to me like a lot of the technology development was done by IBM itself, and they've simply arranged for Novellus to productize it for them. Katherine