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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22121)	7/23/1998 7:49:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

The Russell 2000/SPX ratio, at .3874, believe it or not, is very close to reaching a level not seen since November 5, 1990 when it was .3855. It rallied from 1990 to the peak reached on March 25, 1994 at .5769 and has been in a downtrend since. I know ratios tend to respect trendlines, but I don't use them enough to have an opinion as to whether we may have a double bottom in the making. You would think that after being in a downtrend for 4 years that it would at least want to try to make a goal line stand here. My Russell 2000 data only goes back to 1988, so if someone has data further back they might want to see if this has happened before and what the resolution was. Vitas

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22121)	7/23/1998 7:57:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Oex led by breaking out to new highs on 6/24/98 s&p 500 6/25/98 naz comp 7/08/98 Current observation may pointout that oex acts as slight leading indicator.There are so many cross currents swirling around it IS difficult to know .So many actions get reversed almost immediately. Key I am looking for is when todays MO MO stocks break down what will be the next rotation of leadership ? Thanks for good work! Bob I think / hope it will be tech stocks.When money bails out of hi flyers they do represent great values that have been overly pummeled. Liked IBM's action lately

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (22121)	7/23/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Hi Monty; The OEX has some, but not all , of the most liquid stocks. That you didn't get my .49% up is because I failed to included the "weighting" on the issues. I'm still weighted like they were back when I set them up, the real index is more dynamic. But the real index can also miss lead, as the top 15 stocks in the OEX have 50% of the power. Like the Nifty Fifty in the S&P have 50% of the power in that index. On the other hand the DOW is not market cap weighted, each stock in it moves it's index with the same power per point change. The Dow could be said to be weighted by price, but without consideration to shares outstanding. You have equal money in each issue according to it's price. So we have two major systems going when it comes to indexes, ( the soxx is not weighted at all ). You have a set amount of shares for each issue. Most indexes go the cap weighted route, which is the most senseable one, but still has serious draw backs. ----------------- I don't have a holy grail, today most of the foreign markets are down and I just eyeball them, but when they are down this much it seems to take the wind out of our market some. To say in negates my positive signs..in short signals are mixed we got over sold , but a bounce in the blue chips, but some fear in the foreign markets. What will the 30yr yield do today, and will the Fed add more liquid ? I can't call the short term right now, it's touch and go. ------------------- Longer term I expect some kind of rally for the small caps & them to make a run up before any major sell off. This could be the exception. However odds would not favor that. By the time they tell us about the big small cap run it's generally half or more over. Remember last summer.. --------------------- Jim