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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (11938)	7/23/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Chris, The market is making new highs but the top performers propelling this market are getting fewer and fewer. One stat I read said MSFT, INTC, DELL & CSCO are 25% of the NASDAQ. Earnings growth is slowing (3% last Q) the economy may be contracting, trading volume is increasing, PE's are expanding (30x's), cash reserves in MF'sare at 4% and the prospects for the next 18 months are not favorable. The people have been lulled into the belief that they will get 30% returns (despite 1% inflation and 3% growth) forever. I don't know if they will sell sooner rather than later but eventually their greed will send them fleeing for the exits. I think the semis & manufacturing are already starting to feel the pinch but stay lofty due to past conditioning. I think the banks will be hit big time once the seriousness of Y2K, derrivative losses, bankruptcies of sub-prime borrowers increase and foreign loan defaults start to materialize. IMO we'll see companies like DELL (the 90's version of the 50's TV manufacturer)and AMZN halved in the next 6 months.